SMM5 13: today's non-ferrous black running ice and fire double days, non-ferrous metals generally callback. Yesterday's bright trend of Shanghai lead fell more than 2%, will be all yesterday's increase back, the rest of the metal has a small rise but the disk is still green. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, but the short-term upward space is limited. Due to the improvement of consumption and the contraction of some supply links in the second quarter, the overall balance between supply and demand has greatly improved compared with the first quarter, and a small removal of storage can be achieved. However, at present, the good balance sheet of primary nickel is very dependent on the consumption of stainless steel and the contraction of domestic nickel pig iron. Considering that the epidemic situation in overseas areas is still severe, but the intention to resume production is strong, and the future trend is good, there is still some potential for the performance of nickel prices, and the current price may be on the center of gravity of the annual average price. On the aluminum side, under the background of the domestic macro improvement, the fundamentals look at the continued strength of electrolytic aluminum to give some support to the short-term aluminum price, but near the delivery day, as the supply of imports replenishes, the price difference between spot, current month and main contracts shrinks rapidly, and the absolute price shows a correction of high hindrance. The downlink space of the outer disk is relatively narrow in China, so it is necessary to pay continuous attention to the positive logic inside and outside in the near future.
The black system floated red, iron ore rose 2.14%, downstream steel rose slightly. According to SMM tracking data, the volume of incoming cargo last week is expected to be 14.05 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons from the previous month, and an increase of 1.72 million tons over the same period last year. During the period, Australia's port departure dropped by 2.08 million tons to 15.6 million tons month-on-month. The significant decline in Australia's port departure in this period is mainly due to the maintenance of several port berths. Brazil's departure from the port fell 820000 tons to 5.27 million tons from the same period last year, basically unchanged from the same period last year. At the same time, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM in April was 86.4%, up 2.3% from the previous month. The demand side of iron ore continued to increase, and prices continued to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Short-term strong domestic demand stimulus policy and the rapid recovery of real estate infrastructure construction, so that the apparent consumption of building materials reached and exceeded the level of the same period last year, the current steel consumption season, the traditional infrastructure power is obvious, the short-term material end will remain on the strong side.
Crude oil fell 1.99% in the previous period. Oil prices fell on Wednesday on fears that a second wave of outbreaks could follow the easing of the blockade, triggering a new round of restrictions on the movement of people, while industry data showed that US crude oil stocks continued to rise. These doubts have overshadowed Saudi calls for more production cuts to restore market balance. Saudi Arabia said earlier this week that it planned to increase production cuts again. Brent crude oil futures are down 2.67% at $29.18 a barrel. Us crude oil futures fell 1.75 per cent to $25.33 a barrel. Oil prices have been hit by fears that a recurrence of infections could prompt some countries to extend the blockade, thereby hitting global economic activity and energy demand.
As of today's daytime close:
Today's capital flow
Funds are one-sided inclined to industrial products, crude oil plate absorbs 622 million funds, black chain and chemical industry are favored by about 600 million funds respectively, iron ore re-hit a new high, a large amount of gold for the third day in a row. Non-ferrous plate fell collectively, funds showed a state of outflow, Shanghai zinc lost 218 million of funds.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on May 13
Copper: today, the main force of Shanghai copper jumped to a low of 42850 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, it was suppressed by the short to the lowest point of 42680 yuan / ton in the day. At this time, the bulls came into the market one after another to drive the copper price to rebound more than 200 yuan / ton, and then in the range of 42800-42940 yuan / ton shock finishing, midday closed at 42900 yuan / ton. Opening in the afternoon, the empty more into pull up the price of copper, as high as 43120 yuan / ton. Near the end of the day, copper prices fell slightly to close at 43060 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton, down 0.51%. The monthly contract of Shanghai Copper today reduced its position by another 5850 hands to 12000 hands, or about 62000 tons, while the copper warehouse receipt daily of the previous issue shows that the current number of copper warehouse receipts is 65916 tons, and the position has returned to the safe range. At the same time, the position in the far-month contract has been increased at different levels. Intraday 05-06 contract spread narrowed slightly to about 200 yuan / ton, and is expected to further narrow in the next two trading days. Copper jumped short in Shanghai during the day, mainly due to heightened concerns about the possibility of a second outbreak. South Korea has a cluster of infections, U. S. infectious disease expert Fauci also said that premature lifting of the blockade measures could lead to a further outbreak of the new crown epidemic, market risk preference to cool down the price of copper. There was good news on fundamentals. Zambia's temporary closure of the Zantan border due to the epidemic forced delays in copper exports via Tanzania, investors' expectations of a copper glut eased, and copper prices gained momentum to make up for today's shortfall. At present, Shanghai copper closed negative, KDJ curve showed downward crossover, but the bottom is still 10, 60 days moving average support, long and short forces continue to play at the 43000 level. At night, waiting for the outer plate guidance, test whether Shanghai copper can stand at the 43000 yuan / ton level.
Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract opened at 12350 yuan / ton in the morning, opened with short positions of more than a thousand hands, low straight to 12285 yuan / ton, and then repaired the decline from the low level, all the way up slowly, to the end of the day closed at the highest point of 12525 yuan / ton, closed at 12495 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.64%, the trading volume increased by 34457 hands to 119000 hands, the position increased by 1614 hands to 149000 hands, closed at the small positive line, the end of the day closed at 12495 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.64%, the trading volume increased by 34457 hands to 119000 hands, the position increased by 1614 hands to 149000 hands, and closed at the small yang line. The center of gravity is still below the 60-day moving average and is expected to continue to have limited upstream space in the evening. Pay attention to the change of long short position at night.
Zinc: intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2007 contract opened at 16630 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc continued the night decline at the beginning of the day, falling 16440 yuan / ton, then the 10-day moving average support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc returned to 16620 yuan / ton, under pressure daily moving average operation. Entering the European trading session, Shanghai zinc fell back to 16550 yuan / ton near to find support, two attempts to return to break through the daily average line failed to make a line, closed down 16615 yuan / ton, down 255yuan / ton, down 1.51%, trading volume increased 48666 hands to 142000 hands, position reduced 4567 hands to 122000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive negative, with the shadow line down the 10-day moving average, MACD index to become a dead fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc upward weakness. Supply-side production cuts are expected to be digested, but the recovery in real consumption is limited, coupled with market inventories are still high, long confidence weakened out of the market. Pay attention to the disturbance of the Fed news to the macro sentiment of the market at night.
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Registration contact: Lu Qingping, SMM Iron and Steel Division
Tel: 021-51595781 / 187-1777-4590