5.13 minutes of the Bronze Morning meeting
[5.13 SMM Bronze Morning meeting Summary] Macro aspect: 1) China's CPI rose 3.3%, expected 3.75%, and the previous value was 4.3% in April compared with the same period last year; in April, PPI fell 3.1% from the same period last year, 2.6% from the previous year, 1.5% from the previous value, and 1.3% from the previous month. [bearish] 2) the US core CPI fell 0.4 per cent in April from a month earlier, the biggest monthly decline on record; the US consumer price index fell the most since 2008. 3) Fauci, a top US infectious disease expert, warned in Congress that the premature lifting of the blockade could lead to a further outbreak of the new epidemic. The epidemic has killed 80,000 Americans and paralyzed the economy. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a Senate committee that the epidemic had not been brought under control in some parts of the United States. [bearish] fundamentals: 1) the price difference between scrap copper and scrap yesterday was 700 yuan / ton (5.9% at the ticket point). According to SMM, the recent copper price rally is strong, scrap copper companies worried that the rally is too fast under the downside risk, actively take advantage of high clearance, scrap copper market trading is relatively active. Although the overall supply of waste copper remains tight, the raw material problem of waste enterprises continues to improve. [bearish] 2) imported copper made a profit of about 200 yuan / ton yesterday. The activity of the foreign trade market was higher than that of the previous day. In the aspect of bill of lading, the quantity of offer by the holder is limited, and the willingness to offer is not reduced, because there are still good expectations for the short-term market, and there is a feeling of covering the goods and cherishing the sale. LME contango structure continues to expand, while the domestic back structure continues to expand to 250 yuan, stronger than the price directly stimulate import demand, so the morning inquiry performance is positive. However, the spot rise in the domestic trade market has been reduced to the discount water, resulting in the suppression of the mood of the buyer, the receipt of the goods is more cautious. Warehouse receipts are still in short supply. 3) LME copper stocks decreased by 11925 tons to 229750 tons on May 12, while copper warehouse receipt stocks increased by 1605 tons to 64548 tons. [neutral] 4) spot East China: on the spot side, the fluctuation of the monthly contract base continues to lead the market, and the expansion of the discount still attracts some traders to receive the goods. Most of the market transactions are made use of by speculative traders before delivery. It is expected that the discount will continue to expand before delivery today, with a spot discount of 90-40 yuan / ton. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 120% 130 to the same month yesterday. In the spot market, copper prices fell sharply. In early trading, the holders were interested in offering higher prices, and the quotation was only slightly lower than the day before. However, as the rising water in Shanghai continued to drop sharply, Guangdong holders were forced to lower their sales volume. However, after the price reduction, the transaction was still not good, and the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, showing a state of price without a market. We think that there is still room for decline in the rising water today, but as delivery approaches, the rate of decline will be limited. as the drop is too large, the holders will choose to deliver their positions instead of selling them in stock. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun copper closed at US $5229 / ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai Copper main Company 2006 contract closed at 43040 yuan / ton, down 1.06%, trading volume of 80, 000 hands, long positions reduced by 1258 hands to 115000 hands. Last night, copper prices rose first to $5291.5 a tonne, then all the way down to $5226 a tonne. The fall in copper prices late yesterday was mainly due to a sharp fall in US stocks, as concerns about the new crown epidemic and trade tensions also boosted the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset, with gold standing at the $1700 mark and risk aversion putting pressure on copper prices to fall. Technically, after the recent rise in copper prices continue to lack the power to continue to rush higher, the pullback is expected to collate the horizontal plate for a period of time. Today's copper is expected to be 5150-5210 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 42500-43000 yuan / ton.