5.11 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[5. 11 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) after the April seasonal survey, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 20.5 million, the largest decline after World War II, with an expected value of-2200, compared with the previous value of-70.1; the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, expected 16%, and the previous value was 4.4%. [bearish] 2) Johnson said on Sunday that the blockade of the new crown epidemic was not over, calling for people to be "vigilant" about the risks, and he also proposed plans to gradually relax the measures; most of Britain's economic activity has been closed for seven weeks because of anti-epidemic measures. The central bank issued the first quarter Monetary Policy implementation report yesterday, which shows that prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, strengthen counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustment, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. Support the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to tide over the difficulties. Fundamentals: 1) as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was $54.21 / tonne, down $1.04 / tonne from the previous week. With the gradual liberalization of logistics in Peru and other countries, the spot market in June and July shipment offer began to increase, last week there have been sporadic transactions, it is expected that the spot market activity will continue to improve. [Lido] 2) scrap copper is affected by the recovery of copper prices. Domestic scrap copper self-employed households, recycling stations and large traders have received and shipped goods normally, and the circulation speed and supply of scrap copper have increased significantly. However, on the whole, the tone that the supply of scrap copper is smaller than the demand has not completely changed, mainly due to the decrease of scrap copper at the early import end. Recently, after the expansion of the price spread of waste copper and the increase of the supply of scrap copper raw materials, the scrap copper rod has gradually returned to the market, and there is a lot of gap between the quotation and the refined copper rod. It is expected that the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises will rise slightly in May. Last Friday, the price difference between fine waste and waste was 619 yuan / ton, calculated as 6.1%. [Lido] 3) the imported copper LME was closed on Friday because it coincided with a bank holiday, the foreign trade market lacked price comparison guidelines, and the activity of both buyers and sellers decreased, and there were few transactions. The price quoted by the holder is basically the same as the previous day, because it is expected that domestic consumption will continue to improve in May, and the willingness to raise the price will not decrease, and some traders will choose to declare their own customs imports, revealing their feelings of covering and cherishing the sale of goods. The buyer can not see the price is cautious, for the current high quotation for the wait-and-see state, rarely receive the goods. On the whole, the foreign trade market wait-and-see atmosphere is thick, the transaction high position stalemate. 4) inventories last week LME copper stocks fell 10000 tons to 243700 tons; the previous period of copper stocks fell 26737 tons to 204219 tons; bonded area copper stocks fell 14500 tons to 265000 tons. [Lido] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, due to the continuous rise in copper prices and the actual transaction in the market, the seller took the initiative to exchange and sell the source of goods, strive to close the deal, and the buyer still stopped. Spot water is expected to rise by 120-150 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 230 to 240 on Friday. Spot market, Guangdong inventory continues to decline, the holder is willing to offer goods, but the receiver is limited, the rising water again shows the situation of high opening and low going. In addition, the market is worried that imports of copper will increase in the future, which is also an important reason for the weakening of the rising water. Overall, Guangdong trading in general, rising water within the day high open low go, the transaction is mainly concentrated in the downstream just need to replenish, traders are not active in receiving goods. Copper prices and forecasts: last Friday, Lun copper was closed for the summer holiday; Shanghai copper closed at 43330 yuan / ton, up 0.93%, trading volume 80000 hands, short positions reduced 85 hands to 113000 hands. Copper prices remained high on Friday night, mainly due to strong gains amid optimism over April's import and export data. Overseas continues to pay attention to the resumption of national economies, although the economic recovery faces many obstacles, but overseas demand is expected to pick up in May compared with the previous month, in addition, China's first quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to guide the market interest rate downward, also boosted copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, the shortage of copper raw materials will not change, but with the gradual relaxation of epidemic controls in Peru, Malaysia and other major raw materials supply places in May, raw material shipments are expected to return to normal, but given the 1-2 month shipping date, the raw material market will remain tight in May. On the demand side, the operating rate of copper rod enterprises rebounded sharply in April compared with the previous month, power cable orders were hot, and the rebound of enterprise feedback consumption was strong and sustainable. Copper prices are expected to maintain an upward trend this week. It is expected that today's copper 5300-5350, Shanghai copper 43300-43700 yuan / ton.