[brief comment on SMM Hot Volume] Market inventory pressure improves and spot Price volatility is strong in May

SMM5, May 5: 1. Hot rolled spot prices fluctuated lower before May Day, and the hot coil 2009 contract closed up 1.71 per cent at 3211 points on April 30. In the future coil surface and inventory data driven, hot rolling spot prices have rebounded, some regional traders are optimistic about the post-festival market, positive replenishment.

2. During the May Day holiday, the development of the epidemic situation abroad is still relatively grim. As of 20:00 on May 5, a total of more than 2.6 million cases have been confirmed worldwide. Brazil, as one of the main sources of iron ore imports in China, has been confirmed to be 108000, ranking ninth in the world. The spread of the epidemic may affect Brazilian iron ore exports in May.

3. During the May Day period, the price of domestic scrap steel rose by 20-200 yuan / ton, and the cost of short-process steel mills had a greater impact.

4. During the May Day holiday, car shows and other car sales activities have been carried out in many places across the country, and car sales are expected to rise. The epidemic has slowed in Europe and some carmakers have gradually returned to work.

5. Near the end of the holiday, the overall rebound in the external trend, WTI crude oil prices hit a new high since April 20.

Hot coil prospect: in terms of fundamentals, due to the fact that the cold rolling order in May is still poor and the cold rolling production loss is seriously affected, the cold transfer heat of the steel plant is more, and the overlay pre-maintenance steel plant resumes production, so it is expected that the supply probability of hot rolling will increase in May. On the demand side, under the stimulus of the policy, the production and sales of domestic automotive appliances and other industries are still expected to show an increasing trend, coupled with the current heavy truck market is very hot, so it is expected that the overall demand in May is still on the rise. Therefore, the fundamentals are generally in a state of double increase in supply and demand. At the same time, under the support of the continuous reduction of the warehouse, the market inventory pressure is better than the previous period, the mentality is also warmer, traders and steel mills are willing to raise prices, so it is expected that the spot price volatility in May is on the strong side.

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