A Review of macroscopic events during the Holiday

Macroscopic

[financial Stability and Development Board of the State Council: attaching importance to the risks of Financial products brought about by Price fluctuations in the International Commodity Market] on 4 May, the Financial Stability and Development Board of the State Council held its 28th meeting to listen to reports on progress in supporting economic recovery, speeding up the reform and development of small and medium-sized banks, and cracking down on fraud in the capital market. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to attach great importance to the risk problems of some financial products brought about by price fluctuations in the current international commodity market, raise risk awareness, and strengthen risk control. It is necessary to control spillover, grasp appropriateness, improve professionalism, respect contracts, clarify responsibilities, and protect the legitimate interests of investors.

[from May 1, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia will jointly reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day in accordance with the agreement.] OPEC+ will cut production by an average of 9.7 million barrels per day for a period of two months in the first round. The average daily production reduction will fall to 7.7 million barrels from July to the end of the year, and to 5.8 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022. Russian Energy Minister Novak said recently that Russia will fully abide by the OPEC + production reduction agreement in May. Norway's Ministry of Oil and Energy also said it would cut oil production between June and December 2020. As the largest oil producer in Western Europe, it is the first time in 18 years that the country has been involved in efforts by other major oil producers to support oil prices.

[ECB announces interest rate decision to keep the three key interest rates unchanged] the ECB issued an interest rate resolution, leaving the three key interest rates unchanged, confirming the (PEPP) size of the 750 billion euro emergency bond purchase program, with a fixed monthly purchase of 20 billion euros of bonds. The ECB said the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase programme would continue until the end of 2020. If necessary, bond purchases will continue to strengthen the regulatory impact of policy interest rates and stop bond purchases shortly before the interest rate hike. The ECB also announced that conditions for the third round of targeted long-term refinancing of (TLTRO) would continue to be relaxed, with TLTRO rates below the deposit mechanism rate of 50 basis points, or-1 per cent, for the period from June 2020 to June 2021. In addition, the European Central Bank announced anti-epidemic refinancing operations for banks.

[Iran's national currency changed from rial to Tuman] according to a number of Iranian media reports, on the 4th local time, the Iranian Parliament voted to pass an amendment to the Iranian Monetary and Banking Law, which changes the official currency "rial" (Rial) to "Tuman" (Toman). The new bill requires Iran's central bank to recalculate the exchange rate in terms of "Tuman", taking into account currency reserves and commitments to the International Monetary Fund. The law also makes it clear that the rial will maintain its credibility with Tuman for two years, during which time old hard coins and banknotes will be gradually collected and replaced with new hard coins and banknotes. It is understood that the new currency conversion will become 10,000 rials to 1 Tuman.

[Fauci: there is no scientific evidence that coronaviruses were made by Chinese laboratories] Anthony Fauci, a top infectious disease expert in the US government, told National Geographic that there is no scientific evidence that coronaviruses were artificially created by Chinese laboratories. At the same time, Fauci also denied that "someone found the virus in the field, brought the virus back to the laboratory and caused the leak." In the interview, Mr Fauci dismissed recent heated discussions among politicians and experts and called the dialogue a "circular argument".

[personal consumption spending in the United States fell the most in March] affected by the epidemic, US states issued "home orders" and most places of consumption closed, leading to a record decline in personal consumption spending in March. In the month, personal consumption spending in the US fell at its highest level since comparable data were available in 1959 and was well above market expectations. Meanwhile, US residents' disposable income fell 2 per cent month-on-month as companies shut down, while the savings rate rose to 13.1 per cent from 8 per cent in February, the highest level in 39 years.

Review of Financial and Economic data during Labour Day holiday

Final value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in April, previous value: 36.9, expected: 36.7, released: 36.1

Chirs Williamson:4, chief economist at the IHS Markit, was hit hard by the outbreak in January, with output falling even more than at the height of the financial crisis. As orders fell at a rate not seen in more than a decade, supply chain disruptions reached record levels. Smaller manufacturing companies were the hardest hit and had the highest unemployment rates, but large companies also suffered the worst recession on record.

Us ISM manufacturing PMI, in April: 49.1, expected: 36.9, released: 41.5.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 41.5 in April, the lowest level since April 2009.

ISM manufacturing PMI: manufacturing activity in the United States fell to an 11-year low in April as the epidemic devastated the supply chain, while manufacturing accounted for 11 per cent of the US economy, again bolstering analysts' view that the economy was slipping further into recession. In addition, the national index of factory activity fell in April to its lowest level since April 2009.

Total number of oil wells in the week to May 1 in the United States, previous value: 378, expected: -, announced: 325.

Financial blog Zero Punch comments on the total number of oil wells in the United States in the week to May 1: the number of oil rigs in the United States fell for seven consecutive weeks, the biggest drop since 2015, the same as the total number of wells in 2006. Despite the sharp decline in crude oil demand and the current performance of US shale oil producers, the decline in the number of wells could herald more trouble in the future. Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com says that as oil reserves in the US peak in the coming weeks and the world is in the throes of the world's worst new crown pandemic, the inevitable has begun to happen, a difficult and expensive process of drilling self-shutdown.

German manufacturing PMI before April: 34.4 expected: 34.4 published: 34.5

Kerr:, an economist at IHS MARKIT, a market research firm, saw manufacturing output shrink at an all-time high in April, with export-oriented companies cutting jobs at the fastest pace in nearly 11 years as the new crown epidemic dampened demand.

Before the final value of manufacturing PMI in the euro area in April: 33.6 expected: 33.6 released: 33.4

Williamson, chief economist at market research firm IHS MARKIT: eurozone manufacturing output fell sharply, the biggest drop in the survey's 23-year history, reflecting that widespread factory closures, falling demand and supply shortages were all linked to the outbreak of the new crown crisis.

Euro area May Sentix investor confidence index front:-42.9 expected:-33.5 released:-41.8

Market comment: investor confidence in the eurozone deteriorated more than expected in May, with the latest data released on Monday by Sentix research group, a research firm, showing that deregulation of the new crown epidemic in European countries had failed to boost investor confidence.

Us March factory orders pre-monthly rate: 0% expected:-9.8% announced:-10.3% revised:-0.1% (previous value)

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