4.30 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[4.30 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) the actual GDP annualized quarterly rate in the United States in the first quarter was-4.8%, the previous value was 2.10%, and the expected value was-4%. The first quarter GDP data marked the beginning of the recession. [bearish] 2) changes in EIA crude oil stocks in the United States for the week ended April 24 (10,000 barrels) 899.10, that is, commercial crude oil stocks excluding strategic reserves increased by 8.991 million barrels to 527.6 million barrels, an increase of 1.7 percent. [bearish] 3) the initial annual rate of CPI in Germany in April was 0.80%, up from 1.40% and expected to be 0.70%. According to the German Ministry of economy, GDP is expected to shrink by 6.3% in 2020 and to grow by 5.2% in 2021. [bearish] fundamentals: 1) the announcement of Minmetals Copper concentrate Resources, in accordance with the instructions of the Peruvian Government and appropriate health and health protection measures, has gradually resumed concentrate transport from the Las Bambas mine to the port of Matarani since 28 April 2020. [bearish] 2) the price difference between scrap copper and scrap copper yesterday was 26 yuan / ton, and the vote point was 6.1%. Copper prices fell again yesterday, frequent fluctuations in the market cautious mood, and scrap copper prices stood at nearly two months high, shipments increased. Intermediate traders are also active in receiving goods, mainly taking price differentials, and the market trade atmosphere is relatively active. In addition, some countries in Europe and the United States have proposed to restart some areas of the economy, and it is expected that the recovery of local copper recycling systems will continue to be delayed, but there are finally signs of relaxation, and the specific impact needs further attention. [bearish] 3) the import profit of imported copper was around 60 yuan / ton yesterday. Although the June ratio further improved, demand was lukewarm, and transactions in the foreign trade market were limited. In recent months, the goods are basically out, and the market offer is concentrated in the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in the middle and late May, and the traders have no intention of reducing the price. Buyers' enthusiasm for receiving goods is also limited. First, the rise and decline in the domestic trade market affects the market's price expectations after May Day. Second, some traders tightened their funds as a result of concentrated receipt of goods last week. Warehouse receipt prices remain high, with a small number of transactions and good copper at $95 per tonne. On the whole, the activity of the foreign trade market before the festival decreased, and the market transaction was still a high stalemate. 4) stocks in LME fell by 50 tons to 256100 tons on April 29, and copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 5006 tons to 95753 tons. [neutral] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, the holder is active in shipping, the transaction continues to be weak, and the characteristics of supply exceeding demand gradually appear. It is estimated that the water will rise by 100 yuan to 140 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 240-250 yesterday to the current month. In the spot market, there are 2 working days left from the May Day holiday. Although some businesses want to offer goods at a higher price, more and more shippers continue to lower their prices, and the desire to basically complete replenishment purchases downstream is not strong, and the rising water continues to decline. The supply of wet copper is tight only slightly. Overall, we believe that the rising water will continue to decline, and there may also be a small decline in the first week after the festival, but the decline is not expected to be large. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun copper closed at 5246 US dollars / ton, up 0.72%, trading volume of 14000 hands, long positions increased by 4121 hands to 266000 hands. Copper prices fluctuated upward last night, first continuing the downward trend of the center of gravity in the afternoon, down to $5210.5 / ton. Then ushered in a strong rebound, intraday rose to $5280 / ton, although there was a small decline in the end of the day to record a balcony. Markets were heartened by optimism that countries around the world were close to reopening their economies. In addition, the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and said it would continue to use various tools to support the affected economy was also good for copper prices. On the crude oil side, there is optimism that demand may gradually recover as major oil-producing countries continue to cut production in response to global oversupply, and yesterday's sharp rise in oil prices also boosted copper prices. Copper prices are still expected to have upward momentum today. Today's copper is expected to be 5240-5290 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 42500-43000 yuan / ton.