[Shagang Forecast] SMM Forecast: Shagang is expected to make up for the flat difference in the ex-factory price of rebar in early May by 130-150 yuan / ton.

SMM forecast: it is estimated that in the first ten days of May, the flat price difference of rebar in Shagang is 130-150 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade snail (ex-factory price 3700 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the cost of Kuti in East China is 3650 yuan / ton, and the cost of factory delivery is 3600 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis: in this ten days, the spot price in East China shows a weak pattern of shock. In the short term, the spot market is difficult to improve significantly.

On the one hand, the situation of double increase in supply and demand has not changed. At present, the operating rate of the electric furnace plant maintains a high operating rate of more than 60%. As for the blast furnace plant, with the successive inspection and resumption of production in the early stage of the steel plant, almost all the steel mills were in a state of full production in May, coupled with the suppression of exports, the supply of domestic trade will continue to increase. There is also some incremental space on the demand side. Spot prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term.

On the other hand, driven by strong willingness to ship sand, Yongzhong and Zhongzhong in May, the planned volume of building materials increased compared with April, especially the full folding of building materials in May, resulting in relatively greater supply pressure in East China. However, in view of the better performance of demand in East China, coupled with the "short holiday" in early May, the actual working period is only 4 days, so the steel mill has a high probability of flat plate stability.

Make up for the difference: according to the adjustment of SMM iron and steel, the average price of sand steel resources in Hangzhou is 3515 yuan / ton, and traders lose 135 yuan per ton of steel. According to research, as of April 29, the transaction price in Hangzhou was about 34903500 yuan / ton, with a loss of 150160 yuan / ton. The ten-day steel mill has a high probability of making up 130-150 yuan per ton. In terms of cost: according to the SMM iron and steel data model, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3089.8 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 360.2 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Shagang 10% discount on May thread (6.8 fold last month), 10% discount on disc screw (10 fold last month), 20% discount on Zhongtian thread (20% discount in last period), 10 fold on wire rod and 10% discount on disc screw (50% discount). Yonggang thread 6% discount (last period 4.5 fold), wire rod and disk screw 75% discount (previous period 6% discount).