4.29 Summary of the Bronze Morning Association
[4.29 SMM Copper Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) US API crude oil stocks rose 9.98 million barrels in the week of April 24, and is expected to increase by 10.6 million barrels, up from 13.226 million barrels before. In the week of April 24, crude oil stocks in the API Cushing region rose 2.49 million barrels from a previous value of 4.91 million barrels. [bearish] 2) under a plan announced by the European Union on Tuesday, European banking leverage restrictions will be significantly relaxed. The European Commission also stressed that banks can show flexibility in anticipating loan losses. [Lido] 3) the people's Bank of China released the results of a questionnaire survey of bankers in the first quarter, showing that the macroeconomic heat index of Chinese bankers is 6.5%, and 87.2% of bankers think that the current macro economy is "on the cold side." The macroeconomic fever index for Chinese entrepreneurs was 12.4%, 19.4 percentage points lower than in the previous quarter and 21.7 percentage points lower than in the same period last year. [bearish] fundamentals: 1) the copper concentrate First Quantum reduced its copper guidelines this year by 75000 tons to 755000-805000 tons. First Quantum has been maintaining and maintaining the Cobre Panama mine since April 7 and is expected to reopen by the end of May and reach normal production levels in late June or early July. [Lido] 2) the price difference between scrap copper and scrap copper yesterday was 26 yuan / ton, and the vote point was 6.1%. Copper prices fell again yesterday, frequent fluctuations in the market cautious mood, and scrap copper prices stood at nearly two months high, shipments increased. Intermediate traders are also active in receiving goods, mainly taking price differentials, and the market trade atmosphere is relatively active. In addition, some countries in Europe and the United States have proposed to restart some areas of the economy, and it is expected that the recovery of local copper recycling systems will continue to be delayed, but there are finally signs of relaxation, and the specific impact needs further attention. [bearish] 3) the transaction of imported copper in the foreign trade market remained light yesterday. The market quotation is concentrated in the arrival bill of lading in the middle and late May, and the holder's willingness to offer is not reduced, mainly due to the uncertain arrival of the goods due to unstable shipping schedule and the recent increase in the transportation cost of LME copper inventory. The quotation for the second brand bill of lading is about US $95 / ton. On the demand side, market enquiries are slightly weaker, and high quotations dampen buyer demand. Warehouse receipt transactions also showed a stalemate. 4) stocks of LME copper stocks decreased by 2325 tons to 256150 tons on April 28, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 4457 tons to 100759 tons. [neutral] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, the holder is active in shipping, the transaction continues to be weak, and the characteristics of supply exceeding demand gradually appear. It is estimated that the water will rise by 100 yuan to 140 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 250 to 260 yesterday. In the spot market, the demand for stock before the downstream festival is weak, coupled with the fact that the holders generally want to cash before the festival, they have taken the initiative to reduce the delivery of rising water one after another. Affected by this, the rising water continued to decline yesterday, although the decline is larger, but the number of recipients is still not many, the overall transaction is not good. We expect that with the completion of stock, supply is expected to exceed demand today and tomorrow, and the rising water is expected to continue to decline. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun copper closed at 5208 US dollars / ton, up 0.43%, trading volume 15000 hands, long position 4360 hands to 262000 hands. Copper prices rose and fell last night, rising to $5252.5 a tonne in intraday trading, but the upward pressure remained clear and then fell back to $5200. Markets were heartened by optimism that countries around the world were close to reopening their economies, and in the first quantum announcement, Panamanian copper production forecasts were cut by 75000 tonnes, equivalent to a quarter of shutdown and positive for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to continue to be supported by macro and supply-side support today, continuing to explore the upper pressure level. Today's copper is expected to be 5200-5260 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 42300-42700 yuan / ton.