4.27 Summary of the Bronze Morning Association
[4.27 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) Trump officially signed the small Business Assistance Act totaling $484 billion. Under the bill, Congress will allocate more than $310 billion to the small business salary protection program to help small businesses affected by the epidemic apply for loans to pay their employees. 2) Congressional Budget Office: real GDP is expected to shrink by 12% in the second quarter and 5.6% in 2020; the average unemployment rate in the United States is expected to be close to 14% in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate will rise to a peak of 16% in the third quarter; new crown pneumonia aid could lead to a deficit of $3.7 trillion this year. 3) on April 24, the people's Government of Yunnan Province issued a circular on "several measures to support the Development of the Real economy." the first measure is to support key enterprises to carry out commercial collection and storage of non-ferrous metal products. In accordance with the principle of "enterprise collection and storage, bank loans, financial subsidies, market operation, self-financing", the province's copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products commercial collection and storage, the total amount of collection and storage is about 800000 tons, the collection and storage time is one year. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was $57.42 / tonne, down $0.45 / tonne from the previous week. Freeport reported a quarterly loss on Friday as production fell as Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine moved underground and South American operations were hit by a shutdown caused by the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic. [Lido] 2) scrap copper prices weakened slightly last week, scrap copper traders worried that copper prices will fall in the future, to profit can be shipped as the main principle, scrap copper market liquidity continues to recover, but the upstream supply side of domestic scrap copper is still tight. Under the shortage of scrap copper supply, it still appears that the market demand for scrap copper is very strong, downstream manufacturers actively bid for goods, scrap copper to maintain a state of short supply. Last Friday, the price difference between fine waste and waste was 204 yuan / ton, and the voting point was 6.1%. [Lido] 3) imports of copper lost around 40 yuan / ton on Friday. Import prices have been maintained and demand in the foreign trade market has improved. Market enquiries focused on warehouse receipts and incoming bills of lading in recent months, but the performance was slightly weaker because the supply of goods was difficult to find. Traders have a strong willingness to bid, and offer prices are generally high. In addition, the number of Japanese fire bills of lading arriving in Hong Kong in mid-to-late May has increased significantly, which is expected to put some pressure on Yangshan copper premium. [neutral] 4) stocks in LME fell 2825 tons to 262600 tons last week from the previous month, 44329 tons to 259037 tons in the previous period, and 10200 tons to 305800 tons in the bonded area. [Lido] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, the market is willing to accept goods at lower prices, but the holders are still willing to accept prices, the market performance is still pulling up, recovering some of the previous declines, and high levels inhibit some of the downstream buying sentiment, but traders are still in the mood of receiving goods by pressing prices, and supply and demand are still deadlocked in the jigsaw. It is estimated that the water will rise by 150 yuan to 180 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 270 to 270 on Friday. In the spot market, affected by a large number of warehouse receipts from large customers, the rising water continued to decline within the day; in early trading, the holders continued the momentum of yesterday's prices. However, with a large number of shipments, rising water continues to decline, but Pingshui copper due to tight supply down the range, wet copper shortage quotation is strong. Overall, near the weekend plus large sales, the deal is not as good as the day before.
Copper prices and forecasts: last Friday night trading copper closed at $5188 / ton, up 0.95%, trading volume 11000 hands, short positions reduced 1181 hands to 259000 hands. The center of gravity of copper prices rose steadily on Friday night, mainly due to the stabilization of the crude oil market, the fundamentals of the copper market began to repair the short-term decline caused by crude oil fluctuations. The sudden surge in the number of confirmed cases in Ecuador last week showed that the current epidemic prevention situation in South America is not optimistic, which has also triggered concerns about the speed of recovery of mine production and logistics shipments in Peru and Chile, and is good for copper prices. On the macro front, the market will welcome the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and the data will need to pay attention to the first quarter GDP, of the eurozone and the United States, as well as the manufacturing PMI of China and the PMI of the manufacturing industry of the United States, and the annual rate of the PCE price index of the United States in March. It is estimated that today's copper is US $5200-5250 / ton and Shanghai Copper 42000-42500 yuan / ton.