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SMM4 23: the impact of negative oil prices on the market came to an end today, the non-ferrous metals market all rose, of which Shanghai tin rose 4.74%, Shanghai copper Shanghai lead also rose more than 2%. SMM believes that the recent tin market supply and demand weak pattern has not changed significantly, Shanghai tin prices are still affected by the epidemic and the macro situation at home and abroad fluctuated violently, today the main tin plate in Shanghai because of the overnight rise in crude oil prices and the previous sharp drop in the correction. The tin plate in Shanghai period may continue to maintain a high and wide shock pattern in the short term. It is expected that the resistance above the tin in Shanghai period is near the integer gate of 130000 yuan / ton, and the lower support is about 120000-122000 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead closed up 2.26%. In the medium term, supply is gradually increasing, consumption is relatively light, fundamentals are difficult to support prices, lead prices are expected to remain weak in May, but are expected to rise again in June. In the short term, lead prices are dominated by interval shocks, and technical attention has been paid to whether the upper edge of the shock range since March 27 can effectively break through. According to the nickel mine, the Indonesian director-general of coal and minerals said that the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has revised the rules on mineral prices, under which the monthly benchmark price set by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will be used as the floor price for nickel trading. The document said that the Ministry would allow the minimum price for the transaction to be 3 per cent lower than the reserve price.
The black series fell back in the afternoon, with iron ore up 0.17% and steel falling slightly. Today's inventory data show that steel weekly production continues to increase, while thread and other inventory digestion rate is not as expected, apparent consumption month-on-month decline led to today's black shock downward. On the demand side, the steel association said that in 2019, exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 58% of China's total exports. Many of the more affected countries and regions are our export destinations, so there may be a reduction in export orders, destruction of orders, and manufacturing steel demand is expected to decline. However, stepping up policies to hedge the impact of the epidemic, actively expanding domestic demand and supporting the transfer of enterprises' exports to domestic sales will help promote the resumption of manufacturing work and return to production.
Crude oil rose 7.26% in the previous period. The international oil market has been in sharp turmoil recently, and international oil prices have also soared today, as there are signs that oil-producing countries are cutting production to fend off a sharp drop in new demand, while Oklahoma has also taken action to help oil companies cut production. But analysts warned that the rally could be temporary because oil depots around the world were already full. Brent crude oil futures rose $1.36, or 6.68%, to $21.73 a barrel, while US crude oil futures rose $1.25, or 9.07%, to $15.03 a barrel.
As of today's daytime close:
As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
Market sentiment picked up, most of the commodity funds were in a state of net inflow, and the commodity index received 2.139 billion of the funds. Crude oil, chemical plate rose like a tide, respectively, 793 million and 729 million funds, of which crude oil strong inhalation of 687 million yuan. Oil chain performance is not vulgar, 564 million funds into the arms, palm oil contribution of 360 million yuan. Index funds appear differentiation, IF, IH show gold charm, IC suffered losses.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 23rd
Copper: today, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened high at 41300 yuan / ton, and the opening short reduced position pushed up the copper price to 41600 yuan / tonne. Since then, the center of gravity fluctuated in the vicinity of the price, closing at 41640 yuan / ton in midday trading. Opening in the afternoon, due to the reduction of short positions, copper prices jumped to 41940 yuan / ton, but due to the lack of rising momentum, copper prices fell briefly. Then the bulls increased their positions one after another, and the main force of Shanghai copper rose to a daily high of 42020 yuan / ton. After another impact of 42000 yuan / ton, it fell back slightly and closed at 41950 yuan / ton, up 1120 yuan / ton, or 2.74%. Today, the daily position of the main copper contract in Shanghai decreased by 7310 hands to 115000 hands, mainly by the reduction of short positions, while the trading volume decreased by 21000 hands to 119000 hands. The daily position of the Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 11000 hands to 327000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume decreased by 61000 hands to 243000 hands. Within the day, Shanghai copper jumped high, mainly due to the rebound in oil prices led to a recovery in market risk appetite. EIA reported that domestic crude oil production in the United States has fallen from 13.1 million barrels per day to 12.2 million barrels per day, OPEC+ further production reduction is also promising, the market is expected to improve on the oversupply of crude oil. Tensions in the United States and Iraq have also provided some support for oil prices. Oil prices have rebounded from record lows. The US government's economic policy has increased to an additional $484 billion to offset the impact of the epidemic on the economy. Macroscopically, the mood of risk aversion in the market has cooled, helping copper prices to rise. Copper prices closed positive today, basically recovering from the previous two days of decline. However, with the adhesion of the moving average on the 5th, 10th and 40th, it is difficult for the main force of Shanghai copper to break through the 42000 yuan / ton barrier. After that, we will pay attention to whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to support the copper price to stand firm at the level of 42000 yuan per ton.
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Zinc: intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15805 yuan / ton, the market optimism receded at the beginning of the day, the bulls left the market one after another, Shanghai zinc shock down 15745 yuan / ton to make upward correction, but blocked daily averages fluctuated in a narrow range around 15820 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, it closed down at 15795 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton, or 0.41%. The trading volume was reduced by 38877 hands to 92140 hands, and the position was reduced by 871 hands to 88651 hands. Shanghai zinc received a ten-star, short moving average tends to stick, zinc fundamentals change little, short-term ore supply tightening and zinc ingot social inventory continued to decline resonance, zinc prices may be difficult to fall sharply.
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