[SMM Daily Review] the market is now turning around in the afternoon. Half of the non-ferrous metals have rebounded. The whole black system has risen. Crude oil in the previous period remained below the limit.

SMM4 22: in the afternoon, some varieties of non-ferrous metals market turned up, as of the close, Shanghai aluminum Shanghai lead Shanghai zinc successful rebound. Shanghai copper fell 1.49%. Although the current copper price has fallen under the influence of crude oil, SMM believes that crude oil only has a more obvious impact on the copper price in the short term; under the epidemic, the interference at the end of the mine has increased, the imported copper concentrate has been reduced, the supply of scrap copper has been hindered, the refined copper has replaced the scrap copper, the domestic consumption has improved, and the removal of inventory has accelerated, and the copper price still has a strong support from the fundamentals. In the spot aspect, in late April, affected by the inconsistency between supply and demand, the rising and discharging trends of electrolytic copper in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong were different, and the price difference also expanded significantly. As of April 22, according to SMM today's electrolytic copper quotation data show: Shanghai Pingshui copper price is 170 yuan / ton, Guangdong Pingshui copper price is 250 yuan / ton, North China Pingshui copper price is 300 yuan / ton. "looking at the details of the Shanghai zinc low open upward, SMM believes that looking forward to the second quarter, smelters have been overhauled and raw material problems have given some support to the supply side, but the overseas economy has slowly restarted, external demand is expected to be bleak or improved, and consumption is likely to pick up step by step.

Black iron ore rose 1.16%, thread 1.47% and hot coil 0.94%. Steel production continued to rise, with total crude steel production of 2.6053 million tons per day from April 1 to 10, up 5.16 per cent from late March, according to a report released on Tuesday by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). In early April, CISA member companies produced 1.9458 million tons of crude steel a day, up 6.51 per cent from late March, the report said. While production continues to rise, apparent demand continues to climb. Intraday ferrous metals were dragged down by a sharp fall in crude oil before rebounding. In the near future in the May Day before the support of the library, short-term or strong operation.

Crude oil fell 10.04% in the previous period. Although the OPEC+ energy minister held an emergency conference call last night, no new policy measures were announced. As the outbreak of the new crown epidemic led to a multinational epidemic blockade, the reduction of 9.7 million barrels of OPEC+ per day is far from enough to offset the decline in demand. Algeria, which holds the rotating presidency of the OPEC, has proposed to immediately start the planned production cuts. Some industry insiders believe that even if the "OPEC+" oil-producing countries officially cut production on May 1, the trend of oil prices is likely to continue to face very great downward pressure for at least the next four to six weeks. The risk of "negative oil prices" again cannot be ruled out. "View details

As of today's daytime close:

As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Today's futures market funds are still dominated by outflows, commodity index blood loss of more than 2.3 billion yuan. The chemical industry and crude oil plate became the hardest-hit areas, which were abandoned by 1.139 billion and 1.082 billion funds respectively, of which 875 million yuan was lost in crude oil and 506 million yuan in PTA. Stock index futures are also unpopular, with IF outflows of nearly 1.5 billion yuan.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 22nd

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract short opened at 41200 yuan / ton, the opening short, copper prices were suppressed straight down pierced 41000 yuan / ton mark, briefly rebounded again fell to a day low of 40350 yuan / ton, down nearly 1000 yuan. At this time short on the low to leave the market, copper prices rebounded and around 40700 yuan / ton position horizontal finishing, midday closed at 41200 yuan / ton. At the start of trading in the afternoon, the price of copper rose above the daily average line, followed by a fluctuating rise in copper prices, closing at 41090 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton, or 1.49%. Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai increased its position by 6707 hands to 122000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 22000 hands to 140000 hands. The daily position of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by 12000 hands to 337000 hands, mainly by short positions, and trading volume increased by 45000 hands to 305000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract day reduction of 7725 to 73000 hands, mainly for the long reduction. Within days, Shanghai copper jumped short again, mainly due to the oil market panic transmitted to the global capital markets. The collapse in oil prices has spread over the long term. WTI6's monthly contracts were also affected after falling into negative territory for the first time in WTI5's history, tumbling 70 per cent in intraday trading on Tuesday. Oil prices also fell sharply, falling more than 15 per cent at one point, refreshing a 21-year low. Markets are more pessimistic about the prospects for the global economy. Fundamentally, tight copper supply continues to support copper prices, with Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, announcing that it will cut its 2020 copper production target and cut its capital expenditure plan as a result of the outbreak. Shanghai copper closed down today, MACD Hongzhu continued to shrink, the top pressure 5, 10, 40 day moving average. After that, we will focus on whether the bulls can continue to work hard at the low level to support the rise in copper prices.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened at 100580 today, a large number of departure above the beginning of the 100000, nickel prices fell through the 40-day moving average, bottomed 97500 yuan / ton line, although the rapid return to 98500 yuan / ton, but still blocked by the daily average pressure, short selling pressure again, the bottom 96800 yuan / ton after repair to 97500 yuan / ton first line, but continue to suffer from the daily average pressure before noon. In the afternoon, more into the air, Shanghai nickel center of gravity gradually broke through the daily average pressure stabilized in 98000 yuan / ton line, the highest up to 98480 yuan / ton. Before the close, the bulls fled the market one after another, with Shanghai nickel closing at 98050 yuan / ton, down 2990 yuan / ton, or 2.96 per cent, from yesterday's settlement price. The trading volume was reduced by 42304 hands to 247000 hands, and the position was reduced by 9964 hands to 89370 hands. Within the day, Shanghai nickel opened high and walked low, mainly because the international crude oil price fell again, panic heated up again, Shanghai nickel plunged back to the previous increase today, but 10 / 40 day moving averages cross to form a strong support. At the same time, the upper 60-day moving average 100000 level, or reverse to nickel price upward pressure. At present, this interval multiple moving averages winding, short-term multi-empty two sides will compete in this interval. Pay attention to the direction of crude oil and the dollar in the evening.

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