4.21 Summary of Bronze Morning Association
[4.21 SMM Bronze Morning meeting] Macro aspect: 1) at 2: 30 EST, the settlement of WTI May crude oil futures closed down $55.90, or 305.97%, to-$37.63 per barrel, closing at negative value for the first time in history. WTI June crude oil futures fell $4.60, or 18.0%, to a fresh closing low of $20.43 a barrel. [bearish] 2) Trump said he would buy 75 million barrels of oil to fill up the strategic reserves. Mr Trump's announcement came after the US Department of Energy had opened up about 77 million barrels of storage space left at the base to US companies, offering paid storage of excess crude oil from May. [Lido] 3) in April, the LPR quoted price was 3.85% for 1-year varieties, 4.05% for the last time, 4.65% for more than 5 years, and 4.75% for the last time. Both LPR offers fell the most since the LPR reform last August. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was 227 yuan / ton, and the vote point was 6.3%. Copper prices rose yesterday after giving up some of the gains before the close of midday, stagflation, the scrap copper market cautious mood is also more obvious, sellers profit can be shipped, gambling psychology weakened earlier, conducive to enhance the activity of scrap copper trading. [Lido] 2) imported copper suffered an import loss of around 50 yuan / ton yesterday. Market activity has warmed up, mainly due to the improvement in import prices led to an increase in demand, but the transaction situation remained light. Bills of lading to Hong Kong at the beginning of May are still tight, traders maintain last week's quotation, wait and see the market situation. The enthusiasm for inquiry has increased as the domestic trade market has maintained a high level of water, driving buyers to import copper demand, but there is still fear of heightened sentiment. Traders have recently increased their shipments of LME copper stocks, mainly to China in mid-May, when they are expected to put some pressure on premiums. [Lido] 3) stocks LME copper stocks fell 1675 tons to 263750 tons on April 20, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period fell 3559 tons to 158009 tons. 4) spot East China: on the spot side, it fell back last night. It is expected that the rising water will rise slightly today, and the rising water is expected to rise 140-170 yuan / ton today. It is estimated that the water will rise by 120-160 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract for the month yesterday rose 190-200. In the spot market, the return inventory did not increase over the weekend, but continued to decline substantially. The Guangdong spot market continued the recent shortage situation. The holders generally offered goods at a high price, and there were not many holders with a first-hand source of goods. Therefore, the offer was made very late yesterday, and the price is also higher. As the rising water rose, a large number of warehouse receipts began to flow into the market, but because warehouse receipts are basically thick plates and few flat boards, the price of good copper did not follow the sharp rise in flat copper prices, but maintained last Friday's level. Wet copper, on the other hand, was quoted higher yesterday than on Friday because of tight supply. We expect that the shortage in Guangdong will still be difficult to alleviate effectively in the short term, and it is expected that the rising water will remain high before May 1.
Copper prices and forecasts: last Friday night trading copper closed at $5174 / ton, down 0.69%, trading volume 13000 hands, position increased 183 to 259000 hands. Crude oil prices tumbled yesterday, US crude oil May contract for the first time negative, the main June contract also jumped sharply down, recording a decline of nearly 16%, triggering pessimistic expectations of demand, copper prices under pressure to fall back. However, at present, there is no significant change in copper fundamentals, supply and domestic storage still support copper prices. Today's copper is expected to be 5120-5180 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 41800-42300 yuan / ton.