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[2020.4.21 Nickel Internal Morning meeting Summary] Nickel Pig Iron transaction Center of gravity obviously moved up Vale reduced nickel production forecast by 2020
Apr 21,2020 10:11CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Macroscopically, so far, nearly 2.5 million cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed in the world. [bearish] the market sell-off has been exacerbated by the depletion of oil storage space by energy companies, and crude oil futures in New York have fallen into negative value for the first time in the history of crude oil futures. Oil stocks and the currencies of oil exporters such as the Canadian dollar fell sharply. The collapse in oil prices came as the US bond market unleashed deflationary risk signals, with the US 10-year break-even rate, which measures average annual inflation over the next decade, falling below 1 per cent for the first time in more than two weeks. Russia's energy ministry has asked domestic oil producers to cut production by about 20 per cent from average daily production in February, enabling the Russian government to deliver on its commitments in a global agreement. [Lido] the British Prime Minister resisted the pressure to relax the blockade prematurely, fearing a second wave of epidemic peak, which will prolong the risks facing the British economy. The German Chancellor also said that Germany should not relax the blockade measures too quickly. China's LPR offer in April was 3.85% for one year, up from 4.05% last time. The number of varieties with more than 5 years was 4.65%, and the last time was 4.75%. [Lido]

Vale released its first quarter results, in which it noted that the closure of the New Caledonian refinery was proceeding as planned and that the refining business responsible for processing incoming materials into nickel oxide had been scaled back in March 2020 and that from May 2020, the plant will only produce nickel hydroxide cakes. According to SMM, the late production of the General Nickel Refinery in Dalian may also be affected or even shut down, the specific time is unknown, initially expected to reduce production or start to appear in the fourth quarter. [Lido]

Vale decided to revise the guided production of nickel for 2020 (excluding the New Caledonian plant) from 200000 tons to 210000 tons to 180000 tons to 195000 tons, mainly taking into account the ongoing maintenance in the Voisey's Bay mining area and the impact of the new crown epidemic.

Nickel spot: April 20 SMM1 electrolytic nickel offer 99800-101900 yuan / ton. Basic metals rose in the morning market, including Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. Spot, traders have turned to 06 contract quotation, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract report 150 to post 100 yuan / ton, after the opening of a small number of transactions, nickel prices break through the 100000 mark, the transaction gradually faded. Jinchuan nickel Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1100-1200 yuan / ton, transaction is also very few, it is reported that a small number of manufacturers to pick up the goods, but only agreed on the price period, not settled yet. Jinchuan Company ex-factory price of 101800 yuan / ton, Shanghai area still have goods for sale, due to the higher disk, the ex-factory price is constantly narrower than the rising water, so although the market merchants already have a certain inventory, but still enthusiastically receive the goods. In the afternoon market, the market has a small increase of 900 yuan / ton quotation, but mostly between traders. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract application of 600 yuan / ton. [neutral]

Nickel pig iron: on April 20, the price of SMM high nickel pig iron was quoted at 910-950 yuan / nickel point (including ex-factory tax), up 35 yuan / nickel point from the previous trading day. With the sharp rise in the price of nickel and stainless steel, the quotation in the high-nickel pig iron market has increased greatly compared with last week. Iron mills and traders have quoted prices at or above 950 yuan / nickel point. Some manufacturers have seen a thousand yuan, and the holder has a strong psychological price. The psychological price in the high nickel-iron market rises rapidly with the rise in nickel price and stainless steel price. There is no inquiry from mainstream steel mills for the time being. According to market understanding, a stainless steel plant in South China last week 955 yuan / nickel point (including tax) procurement of Indonesian high nickel pig iron 10,000 tons. Compared with last week, the steel mill's initial inquiry price increased by 45 yuan / nickel point. [Lido]

Stainless steel: after the opening of the last term on April 20, the stainless steel 2006 contract rose upward, during which it once exceeded 13300 yuan / ton. Spot market quotation has also been adjusted to varying degrees, Wuxi 304 private cold rolling quoted 13000-13200 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 150 yuan / ton; hot rolling quoted 12600-12900 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton. 304 the average price of state-run edge cutting was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 13200-13400 yuan / ton. Some traders said that some of the specifications of 304 stainless steel in the market are still out of stock, the circulation of goods is not very abundant, and the subsequent prices may still be on the strong side, but the specific range of increase depends on the specific pick-up situation downstream. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 13260 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water-90-110 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton)

April 20 Qingshan 304 hot rolling June narrow strip sales price of 12400 yuan / ton, quoted volume to be approved; Qingshan 304 hot rolling plate sales price of 12700 yuan / ton; the above price rose by 300 yuan / ton.

April 20 Fujian Yongjin 304 four-foot cold rolling sales guidance price of 12900 yuan / ton, Guangdong Yongjin five-foot 304 cold rolling sales guidance price of 13000 yuan / ton. Compared with the last opening, up 300 yuan / ton. The quantity is pending approval.

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 20 April were 230190 tons, down 114 tons from 19 April.

Nickel price judgment: macro marginal improvement, fundamentals short-term situation is OK, and overseas producers of production expectations have been lowered to further stimulate market sentiment, nickel prices are expected to be strong shock this week, although once broke the 60-day moving average, but the high power to maintain stability is slightly inadequate, Shanghai nickel 98000-102000 yuan / ton, Lunni 11800-12300 US dollars / ton.

Nickel
minutes of the internal morning meeting

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