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[SMM Daily Review] crude Oil fell 3.69% in the previous stage of Black Series Mineral Materials differentiation in large tracts of Nonferrous Metals floating Red Shanghai Nickel
Apr 20,2020 16:53CST
The trading atmosphere in the non-ferrous metals market is good today, and although international oil prices have fallen again, non-ferrous metals have hardly been dragged down. Among them, Shanghai nickel rose 4.42%, leading the rise in non-ferrous metals.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 20: today's non-ferrous metals market trading atmosphere is better, although international oil prices fall again but non-ferrous metals are almost not dragged down. Among them, Shanghai nickel rose 4.42%, leading the rise in non-ferrous metals. As a result of the impact of the epidemic, Indonesia and the Philippines have been reducing production activities and blocking borders for a long time, sparking expectations of a global nickel shortage. And Vale, a nickel miner, recently cut its forecast for nickel production from 20-210000 tons to 18-195000 tons, adding to concerns about late supply. Shanghai lead is down 1.24% today. At present, the overall profit of recycled lead is fair. According to SMM research, as of April 17, the production profit of recycled lead enterprises is 181 yuan / ton, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase one after another. In the aspect of primary lead, although some smelters carry out maintenance, but the amount of influence is limited and close to May 1, the primary lead smelter will continue to produce and the pressure on the supply side is still large. On the consumer side, lead battery market consumption is not expected to improve for the time being, storage enterprises in order to avoid cumulative inventory, more sales to fix production, in addition to finished batteries to maintain promotions superimposed May Day downstream storage enterprises or holidays, the market does not hold optimistic expectations for future consumption, and the overseas situation is not optimistic. SMM believes that short-term Shanghai lead is dominated by interval shocks, focusing on inventory changes.

The black system kept the mine rising and falling, while iron ore rose 1.06%, thread fell 1.12%, hot rolled down 0.83%. Iron ore due to the reduction of production targets, short-term or strong shocks. In the aspect of steel, with the increase of the pressure of reproducing electric furnace with loose scrap resources, the improvement of downstream demand leads to the continued degeneration of inventory. Thread short-term is in the pattern of both supply and demand, but although apparent consumption continues to recover, inventory degeneration, but it is necessary to note that steel inventory is still at the same time in previous years high, the market is still skeptical about whether consumption can be maintained.

Crude oil fell 3.69% in the previous period. International crude oil futures also fell, with US crude oil futures down more than 10 per cent, earlier hitting their lowest level since 1999. There are concerns that U. S. oil storage facilities will soon be full as the new crown epidemic hits demand. Oil storage at U. S. oil storage facilities, especially in Cushing, Oklahoma, is growing rapidly. Refiners have had to scale back their activities as demand for energy has fallen. Earlier pessimistic forecasts from the international oil agency added to the air bias.

As of today's daytime close:

As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:

Today's capital flow

Today, most of the domestic commodity capital inflow, the commodity index absorbed more than 600 million yuan. Non-ferrous plate performance is not vulgar, get 908 million funds favor, of which Shanghai nickel monopolized 608 million yuan. Risk appetite warmed up, precious metals were abandoned by funds, plate blood loss of 673 million yuan. In oil and oil, soybean meal suffered a tragic sell-off, with an outflow of 440 million funds within the day. In terms of stock index futures, the three major varieties are not welcome by funds, with a total loss of 3.749 billion yuan.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 20

Zinc: intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 16140 yuan / ton, part of the long departure at the beginning of the session, Shanghai zinc straight line fell to the bottom of 15975 yuan / ton, then the empty more into the leading, Shanghai zinc shock backfill all the decline, once high 16240 yuan / ton, the upward pressure is greater, the Shanghai zinc plate tail reduces the position to fall back. The final close was 16130 yuan / ton, with a transaction volume of 14673 to 86910 and a position of 2648 to 95930. Shanghai zinc received a cross star, mainly short departure, SMM statistical results show that the weekend social inventory continues to decline, to a certain extent, it can be understood that the ingot end supply and demand relationship is not as bad as expected, while the overseas mining end due to the epidemic shutdown story has not yet ended, on the whole, zinc can still remain optimistic.

Tin: after the Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract opened today, it was affected by the announcement of the 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress and the sharp rise in nickel prices in Shanghai in the morning. At the beginning of the day, the short force left Shanghai to rise to a high of 129490 yuan per ton. Subsequently, some of the bulls made a profit and left the market, and the Shanghai tin pressure shock fell back, wiping out the previous nearly half of the increase, and finally closed with 128270 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.10%, trading volume 38648 hands, position 33744 hands, down 1006 hands. Shanghai tin closed today with a positive line, the physical part is supported by the 5-day moving average, the upper shadow line to the 60-day moving average, it is expected that the resistance above the Shanghai tin is near the integer gate of 130000 yuan / ton.


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