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[2020.4.17 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Jinchuan Nickel rising Water has been reduced to improve the mentality of stainless Steel Price risers
Apr 17,2020 10:02CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

At the macro level, Mr Trump has issued guidance on phasing out restrictions on economic activity, under which states and companies have the discretion to withdraw most of the epidemic prevention and control measures that maintain social distance within four weeks. Trump expects the new crown death toll to be even lower than optimistic forecasts, casting a shadow over plans to unseal the new crown virus, which continues to wreak havoc in Europe. New cases have risen in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, and Britain says it will extend the blockade for at least three weeks. Real-time statistics from Hopkins University show that so far, more than 2.1 million cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide. The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week was 5.25 million, with a total of more than 22 million in the past four weeks. Last week, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to the lowest since Trump took office, and the start of new houses in March was the biggest month-on-month decline since 1984. OPEC expects demand for its crude oil to fall to its lowest level in 30 years, at less than 20 million barrels a day; even if it fulfills its promise to cut production, OPEC will still produce about 3.7 million barrels a day more than demand. [bearish] China's GDP fell 6.8 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier and is expected to fall 6 per cent, up from 6 per cent. China's retail sales of consumer goods fell 15.8 per cent in March from a year earlier and are expected to fall 10 per cent, and 20.5 per cent in January-February. [bearish]

Nickel spot: April 16 SMM1# electrolytic nickel quoted 96100-97800 yuan / ton, the average price fell 750 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Nickel price low open downward, early market Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract flat to rise 50 yuan / ton, due to falling prices traders are less willing to reduce prices, most of the continuation of yesterday's interval quotation, the market has some traders to 06 contract report 150 yuan / ton quotation, the transaction is better than the previous day. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract rose 1200-1400 yuan / ton, due to the recent long association customers actively receive goods, low-price supply continues to flow out, Jinchuan nickel rising water has been reduced, transactions have also improved. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract reported 600 yuan, the current market nickel beans quoted less, converted into 05 contract price discount range has narrowed compared with the previous day. [good luck]

Stainless steel: on April 16, 304 private cold rolling in Wuxi area quoted 12900-13000 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, and hot rolling increased by 200 yuan / ton to 12500-12700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of cold and hot rolling of 300 series stainless steel has been rising continuously. On Wednesday, the steel mill announced that the price in May was also increased by 400-500 yuan / ton, and that of Qingshan 304 hot rolled plate was increased by 500 yuan / ton to 12400 yuan / ton. Yongjin 304 four-foot cold rolling was reported to be 12600 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton. However, the cold rolling price is still weak, the market low price is quoted at 7200 yuan / ton, traders said that the actual transaction or there is still a profit. According to traders, steel mills now limited delivery of orders, the current Hongwang, Yongjin brand 304 cold rolling market circulation has a less trend, further leading to a stronger price. Now the market has different views on the late price trend, some operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, that the price is on the high side; some traders are still expected to be bullish in the near future. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 12765 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 305-405 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton) [neutral]

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 16 April were 230064 tons, an increase of 1098 tons over 15 April.

Nickel price judgment: fundamentals, the Philippines nickel mine production reduction on the supply of more clear, nickel pig iron prices to stop falling to become strong; but SMM believes that stainless steel and other middle links are still under greater pressure, high inventory price rise is difficult, the cost of raw materials is difficult to accept high prices, so the technical rebound repair of nickel prices, mainly rely on macro repair and global epidemic high decline. The previous macro main negative after a continuous digestion, the current market gradually in the expectation of trading improvement, but the crude oil market is still uncertain, the current low oil prices do not even rule out falling into the "negative price" situation. Taken together, the low volatility of nickel prices will continue for some time. Lunni closed in the small negative column yesterday, the shadow line down 5-day moving average, the K column as a whole stood in the 5 / 40 day moving average range, today Lunni opened at 11810 US dollars / ton, follow-up attention to the 40-day moving average pressure above Lonel.

Nickel
minutes of the internal morning meeting

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