[SMM issue current Daily Review] the front dysprosium prison depends on, still does not waste my string song!

(16 April)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

The new situation of domestic epidemic situation: 1534 cumulative cases were imported and 1032 asymptomatic infections.

Overseas epidemic: > 2.006 million / 133866 deaths.

Epidemic situation in Europe and the United States:

The first square array of the United States: more than 644000 confirmed cases, 30985 deaths, the United States gives priority to no one to move! Go, go!

Europe: Italy, France, West and Germany continue to improve.

The second square array (diagnosis / death).

Italy (> 165000 / 21645), Spain (> 180000 / 18812), France (> 147000 / 17167), Germany (> 134000 / 3804), United Kingdom (> 99000 / 12894).

Third Square Array: Belgium, Ireland, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden, (1w / 4W). The Russian outbreak phase.

Asian and stone related countries: kangaroos in Iran and Australia continue to improve. Africa, India, Turkey worry; Japan, Singapore repeatedly; Brazil hanging!

Iran (> 76000), Turkey (> 69000), Israel (12591), Canada (28379), Brazil (28912), India (12456), Peru (11475), Japan (8723), Australian kangaroo (6494), Malaysia (5072), Indonesia (5136), Singapore (3699), South Africa (2506), Philippines (5660).

 

< 2 > current playback:

1. Spot prices are generally stable and mixed. North China is rising and the East China market is stable.

Trading volume: low prices are hot, the overall strong!

The market mentality is stable and positive.

Tangshan area billet upward 10 to 3070 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The price of scrap steel is stabilizing and strengthening.

The price of coke is stable and the state of mind is stable.

Import of main coking coal market part of the decline, weak demand.

Iron ore market: the port spot market remains stable, steel mills still purchase on demand, exchange and investment weakens. Shandong direction PB powder transaction 650-655 yuan / ton, Tangshan direction PB powder transaction 665 ±yuan / ton.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: wide and strong volatility between 3348 and 3408 during the day, ending at 3385.

HC2010 main contract: wide and strong volatility between 3176 and 3240 during the day, ending at 3234.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 597 and 610.5 wide shock, close 606.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day in 1692.5 to 1718 between the strong shock, the end of 1717.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day in 1117.5 to 1138 between the strong shock, the end of 1137.

 

< 3 > current forecast for tomorrow

1. Spot: strong shock.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3370 and 3450.

 

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3210 and 3300.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 590 and 615.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1670 and 1750.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1110 and 1150.

3. Spot operation tips: high throw low suction rolling operation.

Futures trading tips:

Thread, hot coil: more trading in the range, high selling and low suction rolling operation.

Iron ore: the trend air meets the high intervention, the short-term range high altitude is much lower.

Coke: trading within the range is neutral.

Coking coal: tasteless wait-and-see or neutral trading within the range.

Timely stop profit stop is a hard road.

RB2010 main force contract: support level 3370, 3340.

HC2010 main force contract: support level 3210, 3170.

I2009 main contract: support level 590, pressure level 613.

J2009 main contract: support level 1670, pressure level 1750.

JM2005 main force contract: support level 1100, pressure level 1150.

 

< IV > Information and heart language.

1. Financial Commission of the State Council: the international financial market shock stabilized, the economic trend affected by the epidemic is very obvious. At present, the external risk is greater than the internal risk, and the macro risk is greater than the micro risk. Under such a situation, the key is to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, do a solid job in its own affairs, start with the total amount and structure at the same time, exert force at both ends of supply and demand, and implement various policies and measures to support the development of the real economy, especially small and medium-sized micro-enterprises.

2. Ren Zeping: a consensus has been formed to launch a "new infrastructure". Ren Zeping, chief economist at Evergrande Research Institute, said that the great debate on whether or not to start "new infrastructure" has basically come to an end, and a consensus has been formed. Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan and other places have stepped up new infrastructure one after another to expand effective domestic demand. The key behind is how to do a good thing well, deploy nine points for implementation, and really play the role of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, stabilizing employment, and benefiting the people's livelihood, and turning crises into opportunities.

3. Three steel price adjustment: from 00:00 on April 16, 2020-all varieties of wood prices are not adjusted, April 16 from 00:00 to implement rebar 3700 / high line 3750 / disk snail 3850.

4. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:

The total output of the five major varieties increased by 293500 tons to 10.1235 million tons, of which the output of rebar increased by 179300 tons to 3.4344 million tons.

The total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 1.9263 million tons to 29.9353 million tons, of which the total inventory of rebar fell by 1.3149 million tons to 16.0106 million tons.

Steel mill inventory: five major varieties down 881200 tons to 8.5678 million tons, rebar down 621900 tons to 4.5936 million tons.

Social warehouse inventory: five major varieties fell by 1.0451 million tons to 21.3675 million tons, rebar fell by 693000 tons to 11.417 million tons.

Interpretation:

The main results are as follows: (1) the yield of the five varieties continued to increase, but the increase slowed down in line with the author's expectations and lower than the market expectations.

(2) although supply and demand increase at the same time, the growth rate of demand is greater than that of supply. The return period of demand is in place, especially the demand for building materials has reached the peak season.

(3) the deinventory is accelerated and the inventory pressure is further alleviated.

(4) the total inventory of five varieties is 30 million tons, and the total stock of rebar is 16 million tons, which is still the real hammer restricting the height of rebound.

Overall interpretation: more neutral.

5. Market rumors in Tangshan area blast furnace production limit of 30% 50% of the news to be confirmed. No, no.

6. Although the profit drives the supply side to expand and continue to walk, including the further improvement of the operating rate of the independent electric arc furnace steel plant, the proportion of scrap addition in the long process has been picked up again, and the previous maintenance and production reduction has been resumed on the road. No, no. It is highly probable in late April. However, the growth rate of demand is enough to cover the expansion of supply, and there is no doubt about the sustainability of de-inventory! If any decline from late April to early May is a good opportunity to replenish inventory, it is recommended to enter the market boldly.

7. The rise in scrap prices is still driven. The bifocal price remains unchanged. The point of view of iron ore remains unchanged! Certain medium-term pressure, short-term capital position is still playing the story of domestic long-process expansion. No, no. Pay attention to the authenticity of the production restriction news in Tangshan area. If verified, crush the last straw of the long head! The need for stone to stop the epidemic is better. No, no. The outbreak of kangaroo in Australia continues to improve! Focus on the Brazilian process.

8. Continue to pay attention to overseas outbreaks and crude oil shows.

 

 

 

Attachments.

4. Look back on the schedule, tomorrow to regain a strong probability. The dawn of epidemic control in the major economies of Europe is ahead, the resumption of domestic work and production has basically landed, the regulation of counter-cyclical factors is accelerating on the road, the essence of real estate market regulation is loose, and the return of demand has reached a peak season. Although the willingness to expand on the supply side is enhanced, the overall expansion is limited. There is no doubt about the acceleration of de-inventory! The most pessimistic fundamentals in the second quarter have become reminiscent! It should be a good option to replenish inventory at a low level, and it is the right way to enter the market boldly on a low basis. Of course, the height of the rebound will still be limited by the suppression of high inventories, if the rebound is excessive, the probability of a decline in late April! In short, the author's former alimony point of view remains unchanged, any decline after Ching Ming Festival in April is unsustainable and ineffective. If you want to go in front of the lamp, you don't have to wash your cheeks in the red rain!

 

5. Raw material point of view to maintain the same, do not repeat! Today the iron ore, the fund pulls the belt far from the routine attempt to be fruitless. In the short term, we need to face up to the mood of capital manipulation and have the ability to dance with it. Otherwise, in the middle of the high gradually empty, control the position can be. Concern: the improvement of the outbreak of kangaroo in Australia and the mood of the epidemic in Brazil are the hard core.

6. Focus on the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow afternoon, inventory decline is expected to surprise, production growth slowed.

7. Continue to pay attention to the overseas epidemic, especially the priority of the United States!

 

Attachments.

1.3 Steel exports in March were driven by a low price window, with total exports of about 6.5 million tons reaching the highest level since July 2018, with the impact of the overseas epidemic on the probability of a sharp decline in exports in April. But as the author says, the overall disturbance is limited. Steel rebound of more than 320 points, spot rebound range of about 100 yuan. Although this steel period callback arrives as scheduled, but after the return to move forward! Main logic: first, the strong return of demand is the core driving force. Second, the absolutely low steel price has fully reflected the high level of inventory. Third, the short-term supply side expansion is limited. Fourth, the financial pressure has been greatly alleviated. In short, there is no doubt about the acceleration of de-inventory! Spot high sell low suction rolling operation is still a short-term theme! Late enlightened people meet the bargain to replenish the stock in the right amount. The spot author expects that there will be another inventory replenishment opportunity in late April, and excessive pursuit of inflation needs to be cautious.

2. Iron ore prices are stable and stronger, short-term capital position story: first, Australian kangaroo, Brazil shipments fell last week. Second, domestic rigid demand. Third, some steel mills after the completion of maintenance to increase demand. The author's point of view remains unchanged, how can the medium-term price be! Short-term manipulation by funds, the range of high selling and low suction, timely stop profit stop for the hard road (more than a single drop below 590 stop loss).

3. The bifocal point of view remains the same, see yesterday.

4. Continue to pay attention to overseas outbreaks and crude oil shows.

5. Pay attention to the sunrise of the real estate market data, but the reference is not very much.

 

Attachments.

Love the sunny price after the Ming Dynasty, after the festival Xiao Yangchun forward-looking prediction to land on the ground. No, no. Steel has rebounded sharply for 4 consecutive days, the rebound range of spot prices is far less than, the recovery needs to be cautious, the probability of callback is large.

Scrap prices stabilized and rebounded, profit-driven supply-side expansion is more deterministic, but the overall increment is limited. The key is the strong return of building materials demand, demand growth rate is greater than the supply growth rate, the late high inventory destorization acceleration is a high probability event! And pay attention to whether the rush demand return period (real estate first mentioned "three stable", part of the regional regulation and control loosening is a high probability event)! For those who are slow to realize, they can replenish their inventory in the right amount in case of a callback.

 

2. Iron ore: short-term port inventory base, domestic rigid demand is OK, high base difference, steel mill high inventory willingness to weaken and other factors to follow the adult dance probability! In the medium term, overseas outbreaks have affected demand, forcing an increase in the proportion of mines sent to China. Shipments of Australian kangaroos and Brazil are on the rise, and the increase in traffic is on the verge of an arrow. In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged.

 

3. Bifocal. Before the expansion of short-term steel mill profits, coke enterprises to rise difficult to land, coke interval shock probability! The mid-term rise and fall is a probability event. By the same token, coking coal: before the loss of coke enterprises has not been repaired, the market price of coking coal is still under pressure.

4. Focus on overseas outbreaks and crude oil shows.

 

< 5 > prospects for the steel market in the second quarter.

I. Prediction of macro prospects at home and abroad

Domestic macro vision:

First, the epidemic gentleman mistakenly hit the Yellow Crane Tower, counter-cyclical adjustment accelerated.

During the period from the outbreak of the Yellow Crane Tower to the pre-outbreak of the overseas epidemic, the domestic counter-cyclical regulatory factors increased and accelerated, mainly including and not limited to the new infrastructure, tax reduction, reduction of accuracy and other policy incentives to counter epidemic injury and the "six stable" target tasks, even after the "two sessions", because of the overseas epidemic outbreak "six stable" national policy to a certain extent, there is a correction probability, but considering the role of inertia and lag, the second quarter can and must be reflected. That is, strong expectations will be fulfilled in the second quarter.

Second, there is uncertainty in China's monetary policy in the later period.

In order to rescue the current liquidity crisis in the market, and in response to possible economic turmoil, the Fed has launched an unlimited, bottomless QE monetary easing stimulus. There is no doubt that all non-US countries have paid for it, and no matter what measures they take, imported inflation is doomed.

In the short term, stimulated by the Fed's unlimited easing program, suspended the liquidity crisis, calmed the market sentiment is effective, U. S. stocks rebounded sharply.

In the medium term, the main contradiction of the US Emperor is the epidemic situation. At the beginning of the epidemic, there is uncertainty about the extent to which the epidemic has deteriorated, and this year's recession is deterministic. The recession began with an epidemic. Consumers had to spend less because of the epidemic, and producers had to shut down because of the epidemic. Enterprises can not produce normally because of the impact of the epidemic, at the same time, they have to face a sharp reduction in orders brought about by shrinking consumption in the future. Many enterprises will have to face the risk of bankruptcy because of the cash flow crisis caused by the sharp decline in income, and the resulting rising unemployment rate will aggravate the economic recession. These economic activities, the Fed injection of liquidity to promote the role is very limited.

Bet all the money on the bottom of the deposit box on the gambling epidemic! Premature excessive consumption of policy space, what if the epidemic gets out of control? Can the trick of sucking blood and non-American people's sweat in 2008 come true again? Let's see.

In the long run, the great change in the world pattern is deterministic, but who is in charge of uncertainty!

Looking at the great China, China's monetary policy is facing a big test again! Is it possible to follow in the footsteps of the non-US developed economies and follow the old path of 2008? Or are you sure to move on? Or is the "six stable national policy" adjusted to "protect finance and employment"?. No, no. Test the wisdom of decision makers again! In short, hard wounds can not escape! After the "two sessions", the monetary policy of a great country is full of uncertainty, and the market is now strongly expected to cut interest rates in April. The G20 meeting delivered 35 trillion yuan in monetary stimulus to deal with the epidemic and hedge against the global recession! Listen to his words and observe his deeds. The author foolishly believes that if the water release of Chinese currency can stop in the direction of world epidemic control and "Belt and Road", that is, to implement a community with a shared future for mankind, and to export inflation to the United States. It's not beautiful! The Federal Reserve needs China to prepare for the policy response to the imported inflation in non-American countries, especially in developing countries, regardless of the consequences of the secondary economic and social disasters brought about by the continuous development of the epidemic.

In short, benevolence sees benevolence and wisdom sees wisdom.

Third: the epidemic sweeps the west wind, how can the secondary disaster endure.

The outbreak period of the overseas epidemic situation, especially the United States Emperor has the tendency to catch up from behind, although the medical level is not moved, but the political and economic interests override the rest of the world.

Above, there is no suspense on the European and American epidemic Cup champion podium! For the good is the happiest, for the evil can not escape. A long way of good reincarnation, the vast sky spared who! Coronavirus is the common enemy of mankind at present, the practice of a community with a shared future for mankind is the truth, and the control of the epidemic bean base is the essential work of the United States, and it is also the concrete practice of being responsible to mankind. The United States not only does not face up to the main contradiction of the epidemic bean base, but gives priority to opening up an unlimited easing policy! If you hurt an "enemy" by 1000, you will injure yourself by 800. The Great Recession and the Great Depression are doomed! Similarly, overseas outbreaks have caused secondary disasters in China. There is no doubt that imports and exports shrank greatly in the second and third quarters.

Fourth: the story of farmers and snakes should not be forgotten.

During the period of the Yellow Crane Tower wearing a cover to fight the epidemic, the United States Emperor etiquette and shame, four-dimensional atelectasis. Many senior officials and dignitaries of the US imperialist government are afraid that China will not be disorderly and gloat, hoping that the epidemic will deal a fatal blow to China's economy and geopolitics, constantly attack and stigmatize the Chinese virus, and engage in political "epidemic poison." through the so-called "Taipei Act," the Senate and the House of Representatives have colluded with the jin Party of the people of Taiwan, colluded, grossly interfered in China's internal affairs and continued to escalate, and the media unscrupulously publicized false information by using a powerful network platform. Militarily, show off your muscles and make threats on the doorstep of China. No, no. It's hard to tell!

After the epidemic, the US Emperor further contained Greater China in an all-round way, and it was by no means alarmist! Chairman Mao's quotation: the United States imperialism will not die, we must always raise the police!

II. Prediction of the fundamentals of the Iron and Steel Industry

1. Der Spiegel is a high judge of supply and demand.

Supply side.

At present, the profit of long-process tonnage steel is 300-400, and some of the original long-process shutdown and maintenance are gradually resuming, even if the steel enterprises shut down by the epidemic in Hubei Province will resume production no later than mid-April. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills lose less than 100 yuan or even some of the steel enterprises that enjoy tax rebates and enjoy local government subsidies due to the downward movement of scrap prices. No, no. It can be determined that production in April has become normal.

Quantitative valuation: 6800 / 700 = 75 million tons

The long process output is 7.11 × 1.1 / 80 / 92 / 6.800, that is, 68 million tons.

The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace is 70%, 7 million tons.

The demand side.

Throughout the table trading volume in late March and eliminate speculative false demand, and combined with including but not limited to cement prices, concrete mixing stations, pipe pile demand, PC steel bar prices verify each other, and then peep at the start of real estate and steel net export trade considerations. The return period of qualitative demand in April is about 95% of the normal.

Quantitative valuation: 6966 tons 350 = 73.16 million tons

Domestic apparent demand: 7333mm 0.956966 (ten thousand tons)

Net exports are estimated at 3.5 million tons.

The relationship between supply and demand is broadly consistent.

2. Solution of towering floating Cloud in inventory

Seek proof according to the inertia of thinking:

The total inventory of five varieties is 35 million tons, and the total stock of rebar is 19.5 million tons. Even if the data in the table are objective and practical, the maximum inflection point of perennial inventory is still higher than about 10 million tons. Absolute high section of the inventory to the perennial inflection point value at least a month, steel price rebound road is a long way to go!

Reverse thinking:

One is: precisely because the inventory is towering and floating clouds, there is now "land price" steel.

The second is: the steel mill price is determined, with the time dimension for the space dimension.

Third: the so-called inventory towering clouds, just used to the concept, get used to it! Inventory is only a static index of the relationship between supply and demand, and the essence of price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand.

3. The epidemic caused the absence of demand, there is no doubt to rush to make up for classes.

4. There is a high probability of retrograde strength along the Belt and Road.

 

To sum up, steel prices in April are still negative walking, the upper and lower driving forces are limited, in May into the ready stage, June is expected!

 

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