SMM4, 16 March:
Although the domestic epidemic has stabilized, but the economic shutdown for nearly two months and the external demand of the foreign epidemic on the domestic economy, it is still difficult for the domestic economy to recover in the early stage. However, the epidemic has not changed the goal of "steady growth." the "new infrastructure" put forward by the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee has become a hot new investment sector, which mainly includes seven major areas, such as 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial Internet. This paper mainly analyzes the UHV plate re-introduced from "new infrastructure" to the public field of vision, in which the hot-dip galvanized power tower required for the line will contribute to zinc consumption in 2020 and the next three years.
China's UHV construction began in 2006, the overall construction strategy is through the ±1000kV AC UHV line to achieve the synchronous interconnection of the regional power grid, and through the ±800kV UHVDC transmission for long-distance high-power transmission projects. As of March 2020, there are 25 UHV lines in operation (10 AC 15 DC), 7 UHV lines under construction (4 AC 3 DC) and 7 UHV lines to be approved (5 AC 2 DC). The average period from start to operation of UHV lines is 2-3 years. At present, the construction of UHV lines is expected to begin in 2020, as shown in the table below. There are five AC UHV lines and three DC UHV lines, with a total construction line length of more than 7400 km.
Source: national Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration
According to the Qinghai-Henan ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project built by the State Grid Corporation in 2019, and the Zhumadian-Wuhan ±1000kV UHV AC transmission and transformation project, SMM needs to build an average of 2 bases / km of new towers according to the total length of the line and the total number of new towers. Therefore, according to the total length of lines to be started in 2020, SMM expects to start new lines or jointly drive nearly 3900 ±1000kV UHV AC line towers and nearly 11000 ±800kV UHV DC line towers.
Data sources: national Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, SMM Forecast
According to the national standard "Technical conditions for the manufacture of transmission line towers" GB/T 26942018, the requirements for the thickness of hot-dip galvanized layer of iron tower are as follows: if the thickness of galvanized parts is ≥ 5mm, the minimum average thickness of hot-dip galvanized layer is 70 μ m, and the minimum average adhesion is 610g/; if the thickness of galvanized parts is less than 5mm, the minimum average thickness of hot-dip galvanized layer is 55 μ m, and the minimum average adhesion is 460g/. Because the steel used in general iron tower is Q290T, Q335T, Q390T, Q420T and Q460T, the thickness is above 5mm, so the zinc consumption is calculated according to the higher adhesion. According to relevant estimates, the zinc consumption of hot-dip galvanized iron tower according to the weight of steel is 30kg, and it is estimated that more than eight lines will drive a total of 281000 tons of refined zinc consumption from start-up to operation in 2020. However, due to the UHV line project, the transmission tower is generally compared with other equipment demand in front, superimposed part of the order may have been issued in advance, perhaps part of the planned zinc demand has been reflected. The average construction period of superimposed UHV transmission lines is 2-3 years, and the average zinc consumption in 2020 is 94000 tons, which is calculated according to the zinc consumption in 2019, or 1.42% of the zinc consumption.
Overall, due to the impact of the epidemic, UHV projects promoted by the new infrastructure are expected to be released in the second half of 2020. According to SMM research, orders for galvanized tower enterprises in the first half of the year are concentrated in May-June, and most enterprises are more optimistic about orders in the second half of the year. On the whole, although other terminals are greatly affected by external demand, but the galvanized iron tower plate for the zinc consumer has a more significant improvement than last year.
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