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[2020.4.14 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Nickel spot rising Water temporarily stable Operation stainless Steel Price rise or difficult to sustain
Apr 14,2020 10:08CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the macro front, the latest data show that the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has reached 1.9 million. The Saudi Energy Minister said that the OPEC+ retained all options at the June meeting and that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut oil production further if necessary. Saudi Aramco cut the price of crude oil in Asia and raised the price of crude oil exported to the United States. Russia's energy minister said Russian oil executives had agreed to take aggressive measures to balance the market, with global production cuts likely to reach 15 million-20 million barrels a day in May and June. The Federal Reserve reduced the frequency of repo operations as the market stabilized and will resume overnight repo operations every morning and cancel overnight repo operations in the afternoon from May 4. The frequency of three-month repo operations will be reduced from once a week to once every two weeks. [Lido] the US conscientious Federal Budget Committee (CRFB) said that the outbreak has led to a sharp decline in the US economy and massive government bailout spending, which will nearly quadruple the US deficit in fiscal 2020, hitting a record high of $3.8 trillion, equivalent to 18.7% of US gross domestic product (GDP). The CRFB also forecasts that the deficit for fiscal year 2021 will reach $2.1 trillion, after which, as the economy recovers from the damage caused by the shutdown, the average deficit will be $1.3 trillion per fiscal year until fiscal 2025. [bearish trade figures] will be released today, which is likely to show that after the first round of the domestic epidemic, the foreign trade industry has not yet stood firm and encountered setbacks. [bearish]

Nickel spot: April 13 SMM1 electrolytic nickel quoted 96900-98600 yuan / ton, the average price fell 300 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. Russia Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract 50-up 50 yuan / ton, Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract up 1400-1500 yuan / ton. In the morning market, the discount quotation in the market was flat compared with last Friday, and the Russian nickel side, taking into account the proximity to delivery (Wednesday, April 15), the market low price supply is less, more reported in the flat water, the morning market transaction is general, the nickel price center of gravity continues to decline in the afternoon, the market transaction has not improved. Jinchuan nickel, more reported in the rising water 1400-1500 yuan / ton, weak terminal demand, transaction situation is few; Jinchuan company Shanghai has arrived, the ex-factory price of 98200 yuan / ton, but the disk is high open low, traders receive hedging water is still above 1400 yuan / ton, so there is little low price supply in the market. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract report 600 yuan / ton, it is expected that the rising water will gradually weaken. [neutral]

Nickel pig iron: the price of SMM high nickel pig iron was quoted today at 870890 yuan / nickel point (including ex-factory tax), up 7.5 yuan / nickel point from the previous trading day. With the rise in nickel prices and the breaking of the deadlock in the nickel-iron market last week, major steel mills purchased one after another, and the purchase prices showed an upward trend compared with the previous transaction prices. On Friday, the purchase price of high nickel pig iron in a stainless steel plant in East China broke through the 900 mark to 910 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax), and stainless steel prices also rebounded this week. It is expected that the price of high nickel pig iron may continue to pick up slightly this week, but the room for increase is limited. The expected operating range is 885-900 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax). [Lido]

Stainless steel: on April 13, the average price of private cold rolling in Wuxi area increased by 100 yuan / ton to 12300-12500 yuan / ton; hot rolling slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton to 11800-12000 yuan / ton; 304 2B state-run edge cutting roll price quoted 12900-13300 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton; 430 cold rolling price continues to weaken, the current low price is 7300 yuan / ton, the average price is 7450 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than last week's price. On Monday, the cold and hot rolling prices of Qingshan 300 series stainless steel were raised by 200 yuan / ton, the quotation of Hongwang cold rolling was raised by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the price of Delong cold rolling was slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, the base price was quoted at 11900-12000 yuan / ton, which is still on the low side compared with Hongwang price. Traders reflect that due to price advantages, the current market prosperous supply is on the low side, Delong is the majority. Now stainless steel prices have rebounded, or steel mills have made a slight improvement after raising prices. Now the market is still full of cold-rolled goods, Delong is still a relatively low price, and subsequent rising stainless steel prices are still under pressure, depending on downstream demand. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract price 12570 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water-100-100 yuan / ton. (spot trimming = rough edges + 170 yuan / ton) [neutral]

Nickel price judgment: in terms of fundamentals, the reduction in production of nickel mines in the Philippines is more clear on the reduction of supply, and the price of nickel pig iron has become stronger. However, SMM believes that the price of nickel pig iron and ferrochromium is strong, will aggravate the cost pressure of stainless steel plant in April, stainless steel due to inventory pressure price is difficult to improve, the cost end price rise will aggravate the loss, April and later period still do not rule out the possibility of stainless steel production contusion demand, so the technical rebound repair of nickel price, mainly depends on the macro repair and the high decline of the global epidemic. SMM predicts that after breaking through the 20 antenna, Shanghai Nickel may have some upward space to take advantage of the macro recovery, 93000-100000 yuan / ton, and the top of the Lunni K column is facing the middle rail pressure of the Boll line, 11300-12000 US dollars / ton.

Nickel
minutes of the internal morning meeting

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