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[SMM Daily Review] the policy continues to work hard. Most of the market is worried about the actual reduction in production. Crude oil fell 2.26% in the previous period.
Apr 13,2020 17:07CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, March 13: most of the non-ferrous metals market rose today after the people's Bank of China said China increased its RMB loan by 2.85 trillion yuan in March and the market is expected to be 1.8 trillion yuan. The central bank increased the liquidity of loans to ensure capital liquidity. Shanghai copper lead rose, up 1.46%. Affected by the outbreak, Freeport announced the temporary closure of the Chino copper mine in New Mexico. It is reported that workers in the mine tested positive for the new crown virus on Friday, and Freeport has explicitly asked workers in the Chino mine to suspend work. The Chino copper mine is tentatively scheduled to close for 14 days, or possibly 21 days, according to people familiar with the matter. The Chino copper mine is the third largest copper mine in North America, producing 79400 tons of copper in 2019. Shanghai tin rose 1.2%. According to SMM research, imported tin mines are still in a state of tension in the near future. At present, the quotation and shipment of raw materials in the western ore section are relatively small. In terms of processing fees, the actual transaction prices also have different fluctuations in the near future because of the different degree of demand for tin mines in smelters. However, the consumption of tin downstream, coupled with the continued increase in the number of confirmed cases of the global epidemic, should also be viewed with caution.

Black roofs rose and fell, and thread stocks rose in April because of continued macro uncertainty, but the marginal impact of peripheral market interference weakened and demand rebounded in the near future, inventories continued to fall. Hot coil, April supply side reduction and demand side recovery space are limited, fundamental pressure relief is not obvious. Superimposed on the current hot rolling inventory pressure is still large, the spot price is suppressed, so the overall spot price in April is expected to be in a volatile weak trend. In the aspect of iron ore, in April, with the increase of domestic mine production, the domestic fine powder supply is expected to pick up month-on-month, and the pellet premium is expected to continue to bear pressure. "View details

Crude oil fell 2.26% in the previous period. The market does not buy the cut agreement and is concerned about the actual implementation of the cut. Commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs note that OPEC + will cut production by 12.4 million barrels a day from April, under the OPEC + cut agreement reached in April (as production in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait continues to surge in April). But based on average production in the first quarter of 2020, OPEC + actually cut production by only 7.2 million barrels a day.

As of today's daytime close:

HKEx closed today

Today's capital flow

Domestic goods are hot and cold, but the commodity index as a whole has flowed into nearly $600 million. Once the PP strong gold absorption of more than 700 million, daily positions of nearly 110000 hands, PTA sharp fluctuations daily positions of more than 130000 hands, won more than 200 million funds favor, the chemical industry sector a total of nearly 900 million funds. The black China iron ore rally temporarily lost more than 200 million funds, and the black chain index was sold off by more than 300 million funds. Most of the non-ferrous metals run on the strong side, but the non-ferrous plate is dominated by capital outflow.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 13

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2005 contract opened at 13780 yuan / ton, early in the day Shanghai lead in the vicinity of the daily average line short run, after the spot market supply is scarce, and the rising water quotation is strong, part of the short choice to leave the market first to avoid risk, Shanghai lead center of gravity shock moved up to the day high 13950 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13945 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton, up 0.94%, the position decreased by 567 to 20752. Shanghai lead acceptance bald small positive line, has not yet broken through the upper limit of the shock range, in addition, last week lead ingot society library continued to decline, however, the rate of decline significantly narrowed, while taking into account the limited recycled lead smelting raw materials, the supply of stage tension is difficult to change, the recent lead price or maintain shock market, pay close attention to the changes in the supply of smelting waste.

Zinc: intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15660 yuan / ton, mainly into the empty, Shanghai zinc shock upward touch 15805 yuan / ton, then part of the long warehouse left the market, Shanghai zinc fell back at the end of the day, closed up 15735 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, up 0.48%, trading volume decreased 17275 hands to 71387 hands, position increased 1321 hands to 88808 hands. Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity has moved up again, short moving average upward has a long trend, the current inventory continues to decline, at the same time, the rapid reduction of mine processing fees to verify the mine end shortage expectations, zinc basic face profit more support has been strengthened, can maintain moderate optimism for zinc, but need to be vigilant tomorrow LME return to the market.

Updating.

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