[SMM Steel Market Morning News] GDP has a high probability of negative growth in the first quarter, and a cut in interest rates may still be launched.

Breakfast news

Rising factor

1. The resumption rate of industrial enterprises above the size of Beijing has reached 99.9%.

As of April 10, the resumption rate of industrial enterprises above the size of Beijing reached 99.9%, compared with 52.3% on February 16.

2. The number of severe cases in Hubei and Wuhan has dropped to less than 100.

As of 24:00 on April 10, there were no new confirmed cases in Hubei, 28 new cured cases (27 in Wuhan), 3 new deaths (2 in Wuhan) and 320 confirmed cases (319 in Wuhan). Among them, 95 cases were severe cases (94 cases in Wuhan).

3. There are signs of a slowdown in European countries such as WHO:.

The World Health Organization says there have been signs of a slowdown in European countries such as Spain and Italy over the past week. However, there has been an alarming acceleration in the epidemic in Africa, with concentrated cases and community-based transmission in more than 16 countries.

After 4. 5 years of sales restriction and 2 years of change, Qingdao introduced new rules to encourage improved demand to enter the market.

On the evening of April 10, Qingdao Real Estate online Real Estate, sponsored by the Qingdao Real Estate Registration Center, said that Qingdao will carry out a 100-day "2020 Qingdao 100 million stores consumption season" activities to encourage improved housing demand, fixed property rights certificate can be listed and traded at the end of 2 years, for local relevant employment personnel to buy the first apartment, do not need to settle or social security tax. Prior to this, on April 18, 2018, Qingdao Land, Resources and Housing Administration issued a notice that new commercial housing and second-hand housing purchased within the urban area of Qingdao need to obtain a "fixed property rights certificate" for five years before they can be listed and traded.

Falling factor

1. GDP has a high probability of negative growth in the first quarter, and a cut in interest rates may still be launched.

In the survey, 20 chief economists forecast GDP growth in 2020, slashing their average forecast to 2.87 per cent from 5.96 per cent at the end of 2019. All economists expect GDP growth to slow in 2020. The impact on the economy will be more pronounced in the short term, with GDP growth falling sharply to negative in the first quarter, with an average forecast of-6.48 per cent. The Chief Economist confidence Index for April 2020 was 47.81, higher than last month, but still below the 50 rise and fall line, and economists expect the new crown virus to continue to have a big impact on China's economy in the coming month.

2. There are 918 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia in India, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases has risen to 8447 cases.

According to the latest data on the new crown epidemic released by the Indian Ministry of Health on the 12th, as of 17:00 on the same day, India had 918 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia, the cumulative number of confirmed cases rose to 8447, a total of 765 cases were cured and 273 cases died.

3. The Guindos:2021, vice-president of the European Central Bank, may not have a real recovery until a year ago.

Luis de Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank, said Europe is likely to experience a deeper recession than the rest of the world and may not show signs of a real recovery until next year. The most likely scenario for the eurozone is to see some signs of growth from the third quarter, but not until 2021 to see a real recovery in economic activity, the Guindos said. In any case, 2021 will not fully make up for the decline in 2020.

4. Us Core CPI declines for the first time in a decade

Excluding volatile energy and food, the US core consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1 per cent in March from a month earlier, the first decline in a decade, according to data released by the Labor Department on the 10th. The data showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4 per cent in March from a month earlier, up 1.5 per cent from a year earlier, affected by falling prices such as energy. That month, core CPI fell for the first time since January 2010. Economists expect US core inflation to be 1.2 per cent for the whole of the year, below the Fed's 2 per cent inflation target.

5. Famous virologist in the United States: it is too early to talk about the turning Point in the United States

Dr. Robert Gallo, a famous virus expert in the world, believes that the epidemic in China is mainly concentrated in Wuhan, but judging the overall trend according to the epidemic in Wuhan, the situation in the United States is different, not the curve of each state is slowing down, and the number of new confirmed cases in some areas is still on the rise. It is not possible to draw the conclusion that the inflection point is coming. He focused on the number of new confirmed cases, when the number of new confirmed cases in all states began to decline every day, and the epidemic in all states reached its plateau, the real dawn of the epidemic in the United States.

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