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[SMM Daily Review] Macro-positive frequency non-ferrous metal plate tail pull up black series rise thread hot coil up more than 2%
Apr 10,2020 17:11CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4 January 10: today's closing non-ferrous plate rose across the board, of which Shanghai tin rose 3.44%, Shanghai copper, Shanghai nickel up 2.3%. The Ministry of Commerce said today that it will introduce a number of policies to help enterprises operate in the future, including suspending the tax interest on domestic sales of processing trade from April to the end of this year. Copper stocks fell, with inventories in SMM's mainstream copper market totaling 433400 tons as of Friday, down 28700 tons from last week, according to SMM. Of this total, copper stocks in Shanghai totaled 308000 tons, down 20, 000 tons from last week. "[SMM data] stocks in the mainstream copper market in SMM fell by 433400 tons this week for three weeks in a row. According to SMM, zinc ingot stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone as of Friday (April 10) were 74600 tons, down 800 tons from last week. "to see the details of lead, according to SMM, as of Friday, the total inventory of lead ingots in the five places of SMM reached 10, 000 tons, down more than 1300 tons from last Friday."

The black series rose across the board, with threads up 2.43%, hot rolls up 2.3%, iron ore up 1.18%. As of April 10, inventories at 35 iron ore ports stood at 108.43 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons over the previous week. From the recent departure situation of Macao and Pakistan, it is expected that the increment of ships in the near future is still expected, and most steel mills in the port area adopt the inventory reduction strategy, the current procurement frequency is low, therefore, it is difficult to see a significant increase in the short-term opening of the port. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises decreased in March compared with the previous month, and the overall inventory decreased somewhat, but it is still at a high level. In the later stage, it is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand such as infrastructure.

Crude oil fell 3.4% in the previous period. The agreement to cut production has been reached again, and the oil price war, which has been deadlocked for a month, has finally ushered in a turnaround. After hours of negotiations, the OPEC+ finally reached a consensus on the issue of reducing production. Although Mexico has not accepted the cut agreement for the time being, the trend of global oil production cuts will not change. However, the market remained concerned about supply because the decline of 10 million barrels a day was lower than expected. "[SMM] the dust settles! OPEC+ cut production by 10 million barrels per day. This is what the industry sees in the oil market.

As of today's daytime close:

The outer plate is closed for good Friday

Today's capital flow

The market is still rising today, but not much new money has been added to the market. Funds are mainly from agricultural products, especially the oil chain outflow, transferred to the non-ferrous plate. In addition, the chemical sector continues to absorb chips. Specific variety observation, crazy PP inflow of more than 400m funds ranked first in commodities, followed by the day's strong two major metals, Shanghai copper and Shanghai nickel inflow of more than 300m yuan. The two brothers, soybean oil and soybean meal, were sold off, each with an outflow of more than 300 million funds.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 10

Zinc: within the day Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15550 yuan / ton, the initial capital test again, Shanghai zinc quickly fell down 15450 yuan / ton, then the bulls gradually bought the market, Shanghai zinc quickly backfilled the downward trend shock upward, the market buying force was relatively strong, the final closing price rose 15660 yuan / ton, up 0.68%, trading volume increased 5287 hands to 88662 hands, position increased 2616 hands to 87487 hands. The market closed up 15660 yuan / ton, up 0.68%, trading volume increased by 5287 hands to 88662 hands, position increased by 2616 hands to 87487 hands, the market buying force was relatively strong, closed up 15660 yuan / ton, up 0.68%, trading volume increased 5287 hands to 88662 hands, position increased 2616 hands to 87487 hands. Shanghai zinc warehouse turned red, short moving average upward adjustment, short-term supply-side story there is still room for fermentation, can be moderately optimistic about zinc, pay attention to the Wanliu pass.

Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2005 contract opened at 13780 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day around the daily average briefly fluctuated, after the overall strength of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead center of gravity gradually moved up, and recorded a daily high of 13910 yuan / ton, finally closed at 13835 yuan / ton, up 135 yuan / ton, up 0.99%, position reduced by 397 hands to 21319. Shanghai lead closed Xiaoyang line, continue interval concussion, from a technical point of view, the moving average trend of each channel is flat, horizontal trend may continue, from the basic point of view, regeneration / primary upside down phenomenon basically receded, however, smelting waste supply shortage still limits the pace of short selling, recently pay close attention to the changes in waste supply and demand.


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