[SMM Hot Rolling scheduling report] Export hindrance, Import increase in April increased risks on the supply side

SMM Iron and Steel, April 10: according to SMM's latest tracking, the 35 hot rolled coil mainstream steel mills surveyed totaled 9.0264 million tons of hot rolled commercial materials in April, compared with the actual output of 9.0403 million tons to 0.2 percent in March. Among them,

Northern region: the planned volume of hot rolled coil commodities totaled 4.3384 million tons, a month-on-month ratio of-2.67%, and the planned export volume was 285000 tons, + 14.00% month-on-month.

East China: the total planned volume of hot rolled coil commodities is 2.928 million tons, + 7.17% month-on-month, and the export plan is 337000 tons, month-on-month ratio of-6.67%.

Central and southern region: the planned volume of hot rolled coil commodities totaled 1.27 million tons, + 1.60% month-on-month; there was no export this month.

Western region: the planned volume of hot rolled coil commodities totaled 490000 tons, a month-on-month ratio of-18.47%; there was no export this month.

Figure 1: planned quantity of hot rolled commercial materials in mainstream hot rolling sample mills

Source: SMM Steel (Note: sample expansion of about 600000 tons in 2020)

Overall, the planned output of hot rolled commercial materials in April showed little change compared with March, mainly due to the fact that the increment of hot rolled commercial materials and the reduction of hot rolled commercial materials were almost hedged this month. Among them,

The increment mainly comes from the hot rolling increment caused by the maintenance and restoration of steel plant and the reduction of cold system production. According to SMM data, the April increment totaled 693000 tons.

The reduction mainly comes from the hot rolling reduction caused by the new maintenance of steel mills, the active reduction of production due to the poor acceptance of orders and the steering of hot rolled hot metal driven by the profit difference of spiral coil. According to SMM data, the total reduction in April was 706800 tons.

Table 1: maintenance details of mainstream hot rolling mills

Source: SMM Steel

It is worth noting that although the domestic supply of hot rolled coils is relatively stable in April, it does not mean that the risk of increased pressure on the supply end of hot rolling does not exist. The main reason is that the indirect export volume of hot rolling, which is restrained by the spread of the epidemic abroad, has only just begun to be reflected this month (according to the SMM steel export data, it is optimistically estimated that the indirect export impact of hot rolling in April is 1.3 million tons). With the development of the epidemic abroad, the impact will be more obvious.

At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the global demand for hot rolled coil has dropped sharply, resulting in global hot rolled coil suppliers competing for the limited hot rolled coil demand market. The mode of competition mainly adopts price war, but domestic quotation does not have an advantage in the international market, which leads to, on the one hand, the direct export of domestic hot rolled coil gradually decreases (it is not obvious this month. The direct export volume of domestic steel mills in April and 611000 tons in March is basically the same, which is expected to be reflected gradually in May), on the other hand, low-cost foreign resources pour into the domestic market. In order to suppress the domestic hot rolled coil price.

To sum up, the spot market of hot rolled coil in April is not optimistic, the increase of uncertain factors such as export and import, as well as the suppression of the current high inventory, it is difficult for the spot price of hot rolled coil to have the driving force to rebound continuously.

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For more information, please contact SMM Steel: Lu Qingping Tel: 021-5159-5781