SMM forecast: it is estimated that the difference in the ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang in the middle of April is 100-150 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade snail (ex-factory price 3700 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the cost of Kuti in East China is 3650 yuan / ton, and the cost of the factory is 3600 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis: there is no change in the current thread fundamentals. Under the heavy pressure of more than double the inventory size of the same period last year and the continued recovery of production, even though the spot price has rebounded under the strong momentum of the snail in the past two days, the rebound trend has not yet been formed. under the situation of double increase in supply and demand, spot prices are still in a volatile pattern, and steel mills are likely to continue to close. Make up for the difference: according to the adjustment of SMM iron and steel, the average price of sand steel resources in Hangzhou is 3480 yuan / ton, and traders lose 170 yuan per ton of steel. According to research, as of April 9, the transaction price in Hangzhou was about 3520 yuan / ton, with a loss of about 120-130 yuan / ton. The ten-day steel mill has a high probability of making up 100-150 yuan per ton. Cost: according to the SMM iron and steel data model calculation, based on the 83.6US gold mine, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3058 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 392.2 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Shagang for April thread plan 6.8% off (50% off last month), 10% off disk snails (6% off last month).