4.9 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[4.9 SMM Bronze Morning meeting Summary] Macro aspect: 1) it is reported that Russia and other countries will agree to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day at the upcoming OPEC+ emergency meeting. Algeria expects OPEC+ production to reach 10 million barrels per day. [Lido] 2) the Euro Group held a meeting in the hope that the member states can reach a consensus on the relief plan for the nearly 500 billion new crown pneumonia epidemic, but because of the great differences among the member states, the finance ministers have not reached an agreement on the relief plan for the new crown pneumonia epidemic. [bearish] 3) US EIA crude oil stocks report: excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil stocks rose 15.177 million barrels to 484.4 million barrels, an increase of 3.2 percent; domestic crude oil production fell 600000 barrels per day to 12.4 million barrels per day last week; US fuel oil demand fell by 1/3 in the past three weeks; and US refined oil supply fell 3.4 million barrels per day last week, the largest drop on record. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) Vale, a copper concentrate, issued a notice extending the maintenance period of its Voisey's Bay mine in Canada by up to three months, while continuing to monitor progress and events related to the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic. Earlier, on 16 March, Vale announced four weeks of repairs and maintenance at the Voisey's Bay mine. Due to the shutdown of the mine, the plant's copper concentrate production will be reduced, and the impact is expected to reach 6000 tons in the first half of 2020. [Lido] 2) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was-14 yuan / ton, calculated as 6.6%, and the voting points in East and South China remained on the high side in the near future. Yesterday copper prices rebounded momentum is insufficient, slightly higher, may allow upstream suppliers to profit from the sale of part of the supply. In addition, according to SMM, the export of waste copper abroad has been blocked recently, and it has been gradually transferred to domestic waste enterprises, and the restriction of the shortage of follow-up raw materials on production should be increased. [Lido] 3) imported copper suffered an import loss of around 100 yuan / ton yesterday. Import prices opened, Yangshan copper premium ushered in the biggest one-day increase after the festival. But the market transaction is relatively weak, on the one hand, the market supply is tight to cover the goods to sell, on the other hand, the price rises too quickly to make some buyers hesitate, but the price still remains strong. Under the expectation of tax reduction, the domestic spot contract price is relatively strong, the overseas consumption pressure makes the spot contract weaker, the import price of electrolytic copper continues to perform better, the optimistic expectation of the foreign trade market still exists, the pressure of short-term price correction is small, and we can still continue to hold the goods, but the supply of goods to Hong Kong gradually increases in May. Once the tax reduction expectations fail, the market demand will fall back, and the premium will face the risk of falling back. [bearish] 4) inventories LME copper stocks increased by 43350 tons to 259850 tons on April 8, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 4941 tons to 192279 tons. [neutral] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, due to the fact that copper stocks are still declining, it is difficult to have room for decline in spot rising water in the near future. Copper futures are strong, suppressing the buying of some markets, the trading performance is deadlocked, and the market inquiry atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain deadlocked today. Today's copper is expected to be 5000-5050 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 40300-40800 yuan / ton. Today, spot water rose 120-160 yuan / ton. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 90% to 110% yesterday. In the spot market, copper prices are low and high, and market reception sentiment is warmer than yesterday, but near delivery warehouse receipts continue to flow out to suppress prices, rising water is the same as yesterday. It is worth noting that the recent arrival of wet copper is less, and the price difference between wet copper and flat copper has narrowed.
Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices fluctuated around the 5000 level last night and held steady near the daily moving average. Macroeconomic data were light yesterday as optimism about the near peak of the new crown epidemic receded as investors were optimistic about the new round of stimulus measures and the prospect of economic unsealing. Risk assets rose somewhat. U. S. stocks rose sharply to near four-week highs in both the Dow Jones index and the NASDAQ composite index. The Algerian energy minister expressed optimism that US oil rose more than 10 per cent, boosting copper prices last night amid news that Russia would cut production amid market expectations that oil producers might reach a deal. At present, the market sentiment is relatively positive, copper prices are still expected to rise slightly.