SMM4 7: today's domestic futures trading atmosphere is good, non-ferrous plate full rebound, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai copper rose more than 2%, copper prices returned to above 40000, zinc prices also climbed to a multi-day high. In terms of zinc stocks, as of Tuesday, SMM had a total inventory of 297400 tons of zinc ingots, an increase of 4800 tons from Friday and a decrease of 6600 tons from last Monday, according to SMM. Inventory recorded a small increase, mainly due to the poor willingness to replenish warehouses in the lower reaches of Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin. Supply-side pressure still exists, domestic zinc consumption is still weak, zinc prices are expected to rise again is limited. Shanghai copper stocks have fallen for three consecutive weeks, and the decline has expanded, excluding the supply side, domestic downstream demand continues to increase. In terms of foreign mines, Chile has strict prevention and control measures, and Antofagasta said a few days ago that the company had suspended the expansion project of the LosPelambres copper mine in Chile for about 120 days.
Black today as a result of the overall rise in the futures market and rose slightly, intraday continued to hover in the rise and fall line. Prior to the downturn in rebar consumption, the accumulation rate far exceeded the peak in 2019, resulting in a sharp drop in timber profit production. However, recently, scrap prices have fallen sharply, steel production has risen again, and supply pressure is increasing in the absence of greater demand. As for iron ores, the port volume for the current period is expected to be 13.43 million tons, an increase of 2.43 million tons over the previous period. The supply end of iron ore is expected to continue to be loose, and the price of iron ore is under pressure.
Crude oil rose 4.46% in the previous period. The historic demand shock triggered by the outbreak is expected to intensify this quarter, undermining co-ordinated efforts by big oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US to rebalance oil markets to slash supply, according to a survey of 30 analysts and traders. According to the survey, the rise in oil prices is unlikely to continue. Brent crude oil is expected to average $20 a barrel in the second quarter, according to the median survey. But 1/3 of respondents believe prices could fall below $20. Some analysts even say oil prices could fall to $15. The JBC Energy warned that Brent crude and US crude oil futures could fall "temporarily" to about $10 a barrel. This remains to be judged by the convening of future production reduction meetings and the recovery of demand.
As of today's daytime close:
As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
After the festival 2.8 billion capital inflow, commodity futures floating red, precious metals, chemical, non-ferrous three plates favored by funds, capital inflow is obvious. Specific variety observation, most of the commodities showed capital inflows, of which gold and silver ranked in the top two, followed by Dr Copper and iron ore each absorbing more than 400 million funds. However, the crazy rise in eggs within the day, but behind the outflow of 154 million yuan, worthy of vigilance.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 7
Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2005 morning short jump opened at 40330 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long short position strong pull up, copper prices quickly rose to the highest point of the day 40950 yuan / ton. Subsequently, with the long one after another to reduce positions, copper prices fell back and support the bottom of 40600 yuan / ton, narrow shock until the end of the afternoon. After the opening of trading in the afternoon, long and short forces once again slightly pushed up the price of copper to 40810 yuan / ton, but the rising momentum was insufficient, and the price shock was maintained until half an hour before the close. Copper prices fell about 150 yuan / ton to close at 40600 yuan / ton, up 870 yuan / ton, or 2.47%. Today, the main position increased by 709 hands to 105000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions, while trading volume decreased by 2571 hands to 74000 hands. The position continues to move backward.
Shanghai Copper 2006 increased its position by 941 hands today, followed by a focus on the monthly exchange of major contracts. Shanghai copper index positions increased by 3353 hands to 334000 hands, mainly for the long increase in positions; trading volume decreased by 4641 hands to 199000 hands. Copper prices in Shanghai rose within days, mainly due to a slowdown in the growth rate of new confirmed cases and deaths of new pneumonia in many countries or regions around the world after the weekend, the epidemic seems to have taken a turn for the better, and market panic has receded. As a result, European and American stock markets rebounded sharply, affecting the non-ferrous plate rose. On Friday, China's central bank decided to cut the target for small and medium-sized banks and unexpectedly cut the excess reserve ratio in an attempt to release more liquidity to the banking system to support the recovery and development of the real economy. Confidence in the domestic market was greatly boosted, superimposed by a small rise in international oil prices and interference from the supply side of copper mines, and copper prices were further pushed higher. Today, Shanghai copper continued to rise, MACD Hongzhu further strengthened, and stood on the 20-day moving average, the technical side looks to have rising momentum. However, many parties still have concerns about the risk factors of the macro environment, and we should not ignore the sudden risks and the long-term hidden dangers brought about by loose liquidity in various countries, and we should also be vigilant against the suppression of air forces at the 41000 yuan / ton pass.
Nickel: affected by macro positive factors, today's futures market basically turned red. The Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened at 93800 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the session, the confidence of the bulls was enhanced. Shanghai Nickel opened high and explored 94400 yuan / ton. The position was under pressure, the bulls took profits, and the Shanghai nickel concussion went down to 93100 yuan / ton. Then Shanghai nickel fluctuated slightly around the center of gravity 93400 yuan / ton until the close, and finally closed at 93330 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 830 yuan / ton, up 0.9%, trading volume increased by 3627 hands to 386549 hands, position increased by 2798 hands to 82014 hands, Shanghai nickel closed in the small Yin column today, K column below the 5 / 10 moving average gradually adhesive, below 92600 yuan / ton line has support, MACD green column yesterday began to turn red, later concerned about Shanghai nickel can continue to rise momentum, stand firm 93000 yuan / ton pass.
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