4.7 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[4.7 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States plunged 701000 in March, the first decline since 2010, confirming that the US economy has fallen into recession. It is reported that the OPEC+ meeting aimed at ending the original price war was postponed from April 6 to April 9. Saudi Arabia will also postpone the announcement of the official price of May crude oil, pending the outcome of the scheduled OPEC+ meeting on the 9th. [neutral] 3) the people's Bank of China announced on Friday that it would target a 1 percent reduction in the target for small and medium-sized banks, which would be implemented twice on April 15 and May 15, releasing a total of about 400 billion yuan in long-term funds. At the same time, it unexpectedly cut the interest rate on excess reserves from 0.72 per cent to 0.35 per cent since April 7 for the first time since 2008. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate as of Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (week) was $62.50 / tonne, down $2.82 / tonne from the previous month. Chilean copper miner Antofagasta said on Monday that it had suspended the expansion of the Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile for 120 days as a result of the outbreak. Antofagasta also said it had terminated most of the contracts involving the expansion of the Los Pelambres copper mine. Copper production at the Los Pelambres copper mine accounts for almost half of Antofagasta copper production. In 2019, Antofagasta produced a total of 770000 tons of copper, of which the Los Pelambres copper mine produced 363400 tons. [Lido] 2) the average price difference of scrap copper last week was-34 yuan / ton, narrowing 172 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. According to SMM, the trade volume of some large copper scrap trading enterprises in March was about 60% lower than in the normal period. In addition, the haze of the epidemic abroad continues, the Malaysian government announced that the action control order will be extended to mid-April, the start of local copper scrap dismantling enterprises and exports will continue to be delayed. Malaysia, as the largest copper importer in China, if unable to export for a long time will aggravate the problem of copper scrap tightening in China. Vietnam, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries have tightened their controls one after another, and the specific impact needs to be continuously paid attention to. Imports of copper suffered an import loss of around 250 yuan per ton on Friday. Last week, foreign trade market transactions continued to remain active, Yangshan copper premiums rose rapidly: on the one hand, due to tax reduction expectations, foreign trade merchants have individual high prices to buy warehouse orders hoarding behavior, resulting in this week's foreign trade warehouse receipt transactions are very hot, prices rose rapidly, and even appeared to cherish the mood of selling. On the other hand, the problem of delay in overseas shipments persisted, the supply of incoming goods to Hong Kong in mid-April was scarce, the demand for replenishment of long orders increased gradually in April, and the price of bills of lading followed suit. [Lido] 4) inventories last week LME copper stocks fell 5200 tons to 218525 tons; the previous period copper stocks fell 31605 tons to 332435 tons; bonded area copper stocks fell 5200 tons to 333800 tons month-on-month. [lido] 5) spot East China: in the spot aspect, due to the current copper futures fluctuating greatly, the holder maintains a high price, but the pace of rising water and pushing again is slow, it is difficult for traders to have room to accept goods and lower prices, and the characteristics of saws on both sides of the supply and demand sides are obvious. It is expected that the spot quotation will still show a stalemate today. Spot water 130-liter 150 yuan / ton. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot rose 120% 130 to the current month's contract last Friday. In the spot market, although copper prices are high, holders still insist on high water shipments, but the willingness to continue replenishment downstream near Qingming Festival short holiday today is not high, coupled with the reluctance of some holdings to hoard goods for the holidays and deliver goods at sharply lower prices during the second quarter of the trading session. Overall, near short holiday, the market trading enthusiasm declined, rising water within the day high open low walk.
Copper prices and forecasts: last night, Lun copper closed at $4904.5 / ton, up 1.29%, trading volume 17000 hands, short positions reduced 2004 hands to 267000 hands; Shanghai copper closed for one day yesterday because of the Ching Ming Festival holiday. Copper prices were stable and volatile last night, running near the $4900 / tonne platform. The Japanese government on Monday prepared to launch a $990 billion stimulus package in response to recession stimulus measures caused by the epidemic, as fears of a bigger-than-expected fall in non-farm data in the United States on Friday eased market concerns and copper prices rebounded slightly yesterday. At present, the South American epidemic has a greater impact on the supply side, Chile and Peru copper mines and copper shipments are more difficult, and last week Mexico declared a state of emergency, there is a strong support below the copper price. And in the macro aspect of the continuous release of good and other risk assets led by the general rise, there is room for recovery above the copper price. It is estimated that today's copper 4970-5030 U. S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 40300-40900 yuan / ton.
