[SMM hot rolling] hot rolling mill social bank showed a downward trend, spot prices overfell rebound can be sustained?

Summary: the total inventory of hot rolling this week is 5.4511 million tons, month-on-month-2.20%, year-on-year + 73.62%. Driven by strong demand in the north, the factory social treasury showed a downward trend this week, and the decline in total inventory has expanded.

Table 1: hot rolling inventory comparison

Source: SMM Steel

Social inventory: hot rolled social bank 4.0093 million tons this week, month-on-month-1.21%, year-on-year + 81.27%.

Figure 1: trend chart of social inventory

Source: SMM Steel

Steel mill inventory: this week hot rolling mill warehouse 1.4418 million tons, month-on-month-4.84%, year-on-year + 55.37%.

Figure 2: inventory trend chart of steel mill

Source: SMM Steel

Recently, affected by the continuous fermentation of the peripheral epidemic situation, the paper showed six consecutive negative conditions, leading to the spread of market panic, traders earning low prices to sell goods, prompting the spot price of hot rolls to fall sharply, and East and South China once fell to 3150 yuan / ton and 3160 yuan / ton.

In this market, the northern market is unique, not only the decline in spot prices is narrower, terminal demand is also more prosperous than other markets. According to SMM, both steel mills and traders in the northern market ship smoothly, and the volume of low-cost transactions is very considerable, prompting the transfer of factory treasury and social treasury to the terminal, leading to a decline in inventory this week.

However, at present, it should be noted that the external uncertainty continues to repeat, the stimulus effect of domestic policy has not yet been clearly reflected, coupled with the inventory is still in a relatively high position, so short-term market pressure still exists. And from the point of view of the regional inventory in Shanghai and Le this week, it is still in the process of recessive inventory dominance, so it is expected that the short-term inventory will maintain the trend of high fluctuation, and the spot price pressure pattern has not changed.

Perch