SMM Evening Comments (Mar 26): Shanghai copper retreated as market cooled on US stimulus deal

SHANGHAI, Mar 26 (SMM) – SHFE copper and nickel declined and other base metals rose marginally on Thursday following two days of rallies. Remerged concerns about a coronavirus-driven global recession saw copper giving up gains, despite the passage of a $2 trillion stimulus package in the US aimed at offsetting the economic impact from the coronavirus.

SHFE aluminium gained 0.95%, lead added 0.67%, zinc increased 0.24%, tin climbed 0.6%, while copper shed 0.1%, and nickel lost 0.52%. 

The ferrous complex traded mixed as iron ore advanced 0.68%, stainless steel climbed 0.34%, while rebar shed 0.68%, hot-rolled coil dipped 0.87%, and coke slipped 0.53%. 

The Ministry of Commerce said in a press conference on Thursday that China’s current trade policy should focus on stabilising the basic foreign trade.

The SHFE has suspended night trading session until further notice.

Copper: The rally in copper lost steam as the most-liquid SHFE May contract stemmed increase at 39,240 yuan/mt and fell sharply before closing down 0.1% on the day at 38,870 yuan/mt. It failed to stand above 40,000 yuan/mt given limited upward momentum, and may continue to test support from 38,000 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE May contract moved sideways and finished the day 0.95% higher at 11,640 yuan/mt. SMM data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium continued to increase by 20,000 mt on the week to 1.67 million mt, as downstream demand has yet to fully recover even as the pandemic situation eased in China. A smaller price gap between primary and scrap aluminium drove secondary aluminium plants to accelerate scrap purchasing, which led to a smaller buildup in aluminium stocks this week. Near-term aluminium prices will remain under heavy pressure.  

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE June contract found strong support from 91,000 yuan/mt, ending down 0.52% on the day as it came down from a session high of 93,340 yuan/mt with longs booking profits. The contract is expected to remain rangebound between 92,000-93,000 yuan/mt. 

Lead: The most-active SHFE May contract consolidated around the daily moving average and ended up 0.67% on the day at 13,515 yuan/mt. The upward momentum remained limited. 

Tin: The most-active SHFE June contract slowed the rally from the previous two days as loaded-up shorts weighed it to an intraday low of 115,130 yuan/mt before it closed at 115440 yuan/mt, up 0.6% on the day. Support below is seen from the five-day moving average, or 113,500 yuan/mt.