Lundin Hit by Another Winter Storm, Caserones Full-Year Copper Production Guidance Lowered by 10kt [SMM Analysis]

Canadian miner Lundin Mining announced on August 19 that a second severe winter storm has hit the Atacama region of Chile since August 13, bringing heavy rainfall at lower elevations and unusually heavy snow and strong winds at higher elevations. As a result, the Caserones copper mine experienced another power outage on August 14. Inspections revealed that transmission towers damaged during the first storm were again impacted by strong winds and heavy snow, further delaying the mine’s full production resumption. The company expects to restore full power supply by this weekend, followed by a gradual and safe return to operations.

Due to the cumulative impact of the two extreme weather events, Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance for Caserones from 130,000–140,000 mt Cu to 120,000–130,000 mt Cu, and raised its cash cost guidance from $2.05–$2.25/lb to $2.15–$2.35/lb. At the same time, the company’s 2026 consolidated copper production guidance was cut from 310,000–335,000 mt Cu to 300,000–325,000 mt Cu, while consolidated cash cost guidance was raised from $1.90–$2.10/lb to $1.95–$2.15/lb. The full-year production guidance for the Candelaria copper mine, at 135,000–145,000 mt Cu, remains unchanged.

Chile’s overall copper ore production has shown weakness lately. Cochilco has lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt Cu, down 2.6% YoY, and Caserones once again being affected by extreme weather and cutting its production guidance further heightens market focus on the pace of recovery in Chile’s H2 copper ore supply.