Copper Price Pullback Drives Demand Improvement; Warrant Cargo Outflows Weigh on SHFE Copper Premiums [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Aug 19, 2026 14:24

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, the price center of the SHFE copper 2609 contract is expected to move notably lower during the day from the previous trading day, driving the release of downstream dip-buying demand, and purchase sentiment in Shanghai is expected to rebound markedly. SMM has learned that orders for some downstream enterprises have improved notably WoW, and their purchase willingness for copper cathode has strengthened accordingly, with market trading activity picking up somewhat. However, some warrant cargo has gradually flowed into the spot market, increasing the available supply. Suppliers have been continuously lowering their quotes to facilitate transactions, and the downstream's bargaining willingness has been evident, weighing on spot premiums. Meanwhile, the available supply of high-quality copper remains scarce, and the backwardation spread has widened, still providing some support for quotes of certain brands. Overall, under the combined effect of the copper price pullback boosting demand improvement but the outflow of warrant cargo replenishing spot supply, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM August 19 news:

Today, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at 310-480 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 395 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract opened lower, stabilized, and rebounded, opening at 106,900 yuan/mt, then declined continuously after opening, hitting an intraday low of 106,550 yuan/mt, before stabilizing and edging up, to close at 106,900 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month contracts was 330-370 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month was between a loss of 570 yuan/mt and a loss of 510 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.33, up 0.28 from the previous day, and the purchase sentiment was 3.38, up 0.28 from the previous day. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted a premium of 380-400 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper. Subsequently, suppliers sharply lowered offers, with quotes for standard-quality copper brands such as Tiefeng and Zijin at a premium of 320-330 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, the transaction center was basically at a premium of 300-320 yuan/mt. High-quality copper supply was scarce, with only some Jintun large plates circulating, quoted at a premium of 450 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at premiums of 150-220 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the price center of the SHFE copper 2609 contract shifted markedly lower compared to the previous trading day, triggering the release of downstream dip-buying demand, and the purchasing sentiment in Shanghai rebounded significantly. According to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw orders improve noticeably recently compared to last week, strengthening their willingness to purchase copper cathode, and market trading activity increased. However, some warrant cargo gradually flowed into the spot market, increasing the available supply. Suppliers continuously lowered offers to facilitate transactions, and downstream bargaining willingness was also evident, putting pressure on spot premiums. Meanwhile, the available supply of high-quality copper remained scarce, and the widening backwardation between the front-month contracts provided some support for brand quotes. Overall, with copper prices pulling back spurring demand improvement while warrant cargo release supplemented spot supply, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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