Macro Roundup (Nov 14)

SHANGHAI, Nov 14 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead.

Last night

The US dollar fell against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, after media reports that trade talks between the US and China had “hit a snag” over farm purchases.

The negotiations stalled as China expressed it did not want a deal that looked one-sided in the favour of the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, dipped 0.01% and ended at 98.32.

SHFE base metals followed the LME complex lower overnight. SHFE copper shed 0.26%, aluminium lost 0.11%, zinc slipped 1.64%, lead eased 1.16%, nickel dropped 1.38%, and tin fell 0.87%. Rebar went down 0.12% and stainless steel dipped 0.52%.

LME copper slide 0.42%, aluminium shed 0.87%, zinc slipped 1.62%, nickel lost 1.53%, tin ended 1.84% lower, and lead lost 1.14%. 

US consumer prices rebounded more than expected in October and underlying inflation picked up, which together with abating trade tensions and fears of a recession, support the Federal Reserve’s signal for no further interest rate cuts in the near term.

The Labour Department said on Wednesday its consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% last month as households paid more for energy products, healthcare, food and a range of other goods. That was the largest gain in the CPI since March and followed an unchanged reading in September.

On a year-over-year basis, the CPI increased 1.8% after climbing 1.7% in September.

According to the advanced estimates published by Germany's Destatis, inflation, as measured by the CPI, is expected to be 1.1% on a yearly basis in October following September's reading of 1.2%. This figure came in line with market expectation.

Further details of the publication revealed that inflation rose 0.1% on a monthly basis while the Harmonized CPI stayed unchanged at 0.9% on a yearly basis and edged higher to 0.1% from -0.1% on a monthly basis.

Day ahead

China will release data on the added value of industrial output for the first ten months, and retail sales of consumer goods for October. The US will publish its weekly unemployment claims data and the weekly crude oil inventory data surveyed by the American Petroleum Institute (API).