SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of rebar in early November is 30-50 yuan / ton, that is, the third-grade snail (ex-factory price 3800 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the cost of East China Kuti is 3750 yuan / ton, and the factory cost is 3700 yuan / ton. Fundamental analysis:
Under the influence of pessimistic sentiment in the market, spot prices did not strengthen as scheduled during the October peak season. However, after the pessimistic expectations have been released, spot prices will continue to return to fundamentals-as far as fundamentals are concerned, thread spot prices are still strongly supported and have no incentive to fall sharply in the short term. Mainly due to:
On the supply side, since the end of the year, the thread production of steel mills, especially in East China, has maintained a profit of more than 300 yuan / ton for a long time, so it is basically maintained in a state of full production, so it is difficult for the supply side to continue to rush higher in the later stage. On the demand side, according to SMM statistics, since September, thread social banks in Hangzhou and Shanghai have continued to decline, and traders have also reported good shipments, fully demonstrating the exuberant terminal demand in the south since the peak season. Taking into account the construction conditions of terminal feedback and the later weather conditions, the rigid demand for building materials will be released smoothly in the short term.
Overall, spot prices may continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term. As a result, the late ten days of steel mills do not lead the falling power, high probability flat offer price.
Make up for the difference: according to SMM iron and steel data, the average selling price of sand steel resources in Hangzhou is 3702.8 yuan / ton, with a loss of 47.2 yuan per ton of steel. According to research, as of October 29, the transaction price in Hangzhou is 3680-3700 yuan / ton, according to today's estimated actual loss of about 30-50 yuan / ton, the actual loss of 20-50 yuan / ton. As Shagang will sign the agreement for the coming year in the middle of next month, this ten-day steel plant will make up for it with a high probability of making up 30-50 yuan per ton.
Cost: according to SMM iron and steel data model calculation, based on 89.15 US dollars gold mine, the thread cost of long process steel plant is 3212 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), the thread profit is 418 yuan / ton, the data shows that as of today, the average thread profit of steel mill in October is 396.3 yuan / ton. Order ratio: Yonggang announced 11-1 building materials plan discount, rebar 75% discount (previous 40% discount), wire rod and plate screw 9.5% discount (last 10% discount).