SMM10, March 22: today's non-ferrous metals market generally closed down, as of the end of the day, Shanghai copper rose 0.11%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.22%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.24%, Shanghai lead fell 0.41%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.42%, Shanghai tin fell 0.41%.
On the copper side, (LME) copper electronic trading on the London Metal Exchange rose on Tuesday as protests intensified in Chile, a major producer, sparking concerns about supply shortages. "Copper prices rose slightly the previous trading day as Chilean copper miners joined the local social strike," said HelenLau, an analyst at securities firm ArgonautSecurities. As the protest by the miners may be a social movement, it may last longer than expected. "
Nickel, Guoxin Futures said Shanghai nickel, stainless steel significantly weakened. Recently, the resumption of production of overseas nickel mines, sluggish consumption of stainless steel and electric vehicles downstream, and long exit have led to a continuous decline in nickel and stainless steel. From the technical side, nickel and stainless steel have entered a short market. At the same time, nickel mines and high nickel iron in domestic ports have also begun to fall slightly. However, considering that LME nickel stocks have recently fallen below 10-year lows and the Philippines has begun to enter the rainy season, the fundamentals of the future shortage of nickel resources have not changed. There is little room for further decline in the future, and the nickel market is suggested to wait and see in the near future.
Zinc, the recent domestic and foreign zinc market inventory continued to decline, and due to the economic downturn domestic infrastructure boost expectations, downstream consumption is expected to exceed expectations, the zinc market should not be too bearish. On the macro front, where the market is now focused on Brexit, John Burke, speaker of the lower house of parliament, on Monday vetoed a government motion to vote again on a new Brexit agreement. Next, the British Parliament will hold its first vote on the Brexit bill at 19:00 local time, before suggesting that we wait and see to prevent risk resonance.
Lead, Ruida Futures said Shanghai lead bottom rebounded, closed at the cross. During the period partly supported by the continued weakness of the dollar index, coupled with the afternoon domestic stock market pulled up some of the boost lead prices, but the lead market consumption turned weak, the spot market supply is abundant, recycled lead to maintain a deep discount quotation, primary lead shipments are generally frustrated, the downstream do not hold optimistic expectations for the future, more cautious on demand, market transactions have not improved for the time being.
In the black system, iron ore rose 0.82%, thread 0.67%, hot coil 0.61%, stainless steel 0.03%, coke 0.31% and coking coal 0.24%. The black department performed more strongly this afternoon, sweeping away the gloom before noon. Although black fell more and less in the past few days, the market spread panic. But (Jefferies), an economist, said iron ore prices could strengthen again. While sentiment is clearly bearish, the iron ore market is likely to tighten this winter, hit by usual seasonal supply disruptions and continued strong Chinese demand. Due to weather conditions in Brazil and Australia, seaborne supplies typically fall by 10 per cent or more in January and February, the group said. This should support spot iron ore prices, which will return to normalisation by 2020.
Crude oil fell 0.90% in the previous period. Crude oil in the previous period of the day has been hovering at a low level with the trend of the night market, and the narrow finishing failed to rebound. European refiner NynasAB has suspended imports of Venezuelan crude after a license change allowed it to operate under US sanctions, international industry insiders said on Tuesday. "Commodity markets are cautiously optimistic and there are signs that the US and China are close to signing a trade agreement," ANZ said in a report. " The bank added: "crude oil prices remain depressed and continued economic weakness has put pressure on market sentiment." On the supply side, preliminary surveys released on Monday showed that US crude oil stocks were expected to rise for the sixth consecutive week as of October 18, with distillates and gasoline stocks likely to fall.
As of 16:55, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
On Tuesday, domestic goods were boring. IC, which led the rise, became the king of gold, winning 1.106 billion of the money. Rubber and threads, which led the gains, both received more than $200m in favorites.
Brief Review of SMM analyst on Oct. 21
Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47150 yuan / ton, followed by part of the short position, the center of gravity slightly moved down to around 47130 yuan / ton, until the end of the afternoon, the afternoon surface still maintained a stable trend, the center of gravity remained stable at 47100 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 47120 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 0.11%, the daily fluctuation range in the range of 47150 yuan / ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Copper decreased by 218 hands to 224000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 67000 hands to 104000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 7238 hands to 540000. Turnover fell by 117000 to 199000. The center of gravity of the disk has declined slightly, and the main reason is still affected by Brexit. At present, Brexit has entered the final critical period, but it is still full of resistance, the market risk is increasing, and copper prices continue to rise. At night, waiting for the outer disk to guide, test whether to continue to stand at the level of 47100 yuan / tonne.
Lead: within days, the Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 17030 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the Shanghai lead high level quickly dived downward, to a certain extent, short lead gradually changed from the initial differences to the present more consistent, Shanghai lead in the short selling pressure, low to 16870 yuan / ton, after Shanghai lead stabilized, near the close, part of the speculative funds sneaked into the market at the end of the day, gambling high in the evening, Shanghai lead reported at 16945 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton. It fell 0.41%, reducing its position by 872 to 48842. The trend of Shanghai lead deviates from overseas, the internal and external price comparison is further enlarged, it is expected that the external strength and internal weakness will continue, and there is the possibility of further downward revision in the short term, so we still maintain the view of selling short.
Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 126630 yuan / ton today, after the opening, Shanghai nickel shock downward, to 125600 yuan / ton line to get support, a small rebound upward repair, to the daily average near the pressure, down again. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel explored many times, all under pressure daily averages, broke through, the center of gravity around 125800 yuan / ton narrow range shock, finally closed at 125690 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day down 1810 yuan / ton, down 1.42%, trading volume decreased by 325000 hands to 735000 hands, position increased by 358 hands to 375676 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative line, fell under the Boll line under the track, there is no other support below, this evening concerned about whether Shanghai nickel can hold 125000 y yuan / ton integer barrier.
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