Summary of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on October 21st
[10. 21 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) British Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit process was thwarted and the House of Commons decided to postpone the vote on the Brexit agreement, forcing Johnson to formally ask the European Union to postpone the Brexit date until January 31 next year. Johnson called the further extension wrong and will again ask the House of Commons to vote for his Brexit agreement on Monday. 2) with a period of silence ahead of the Fed's policy meeting in late October, Vice Chairman Clarida left room for the possibility of a third consecutive rate cut, saying the risks remained "significant". There is little doubt that the market is expected to cut interest rates in October. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: as of last Friday, SMM Clean Mine spot TC was $55-62 / tonne, and spot offers continued to be affected by the increase in export quotas for Grasberg copper mines, up $1.50 / tonne from the previous month. After the return of National Day, the overall transaction of the market is OK, and some smelters enter the market to purchase the supply of goods in the late fourth quarter, providing a certain degree of liquidity for the spot market. In addition, at the fourth quarter meeting of the CSPT group held in Shanghai on October 17, it was confirmed that the TC floor price for the fourth quarter was 66 US dollars / ton, an increase of about 11 US dollars / ton over Q3 in 2019. 2) waste copper: the average price difference of fine waste last week was 746 yuan / ton, 78 yuan / ton less than the previous month. Copper prices continued to fall last week, fine waste price spread continued to narrow to less than 800 yuan / ton, scrap copper market orders were not as expected. On October 17, the 13th batch of scrap copper import approval was announced, and it was also the first batch of approval documents in the fourth quarter, involving a total of 574 million physical tons of scrap copper. The number of approved enterprises in the fourth quarter was significantly lower than that in the third quarter, and the average amount of approval was only about 17% of the amount approved in the third quarter. It is expected that the impact of the reduction in scrap copper imports in the fourth quarter on enterprise production will gradually appear. 3) imported copper: last week, imports continued to maintain a small loss of less than 100 yuan, during which the window occasionally opened, and the Yangshan copper premium fluctuated only slightly during the week. At present, the activity of the foreign trade copper market is low, and the market only fluctuates slightly with the import price. Import prices around the National Day mostly performed better, imported copper customs declaration into the domestic market, domestic supply pressure increased, rising on the water weak, the stock of the last period also rose sharply for two weeks in a row, the domestic stock accumulated in advance in the fourth quarter. 4) inventories: last week, LME copper stocks fell 13925 tons to 268400 tons from the previous month; copper stocks in the previous period increased by 17990 tons to 152499 tons; bonded warehouse stocks decreased by 13300 tons to 256000 tons. 5) spot: the spot aspect enters the long single delivery period, and recently faces the tax bill situation, the overall consumption is more ideal, therefore the holder rises the water is strong, the recent rising water maintains the high level. It is estimated that spot water will rise by 70 yuan to 110 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: Friday night's sharp rally was mainly due to recent US economic data superimposed on sterling and euro foreign exchange gains, the dollar under pressure fell to 97.2 level, hit a new low in nearly three months, the copper market was boosted higher. At present, the macro impact on the copper market is still strong, and the recent data from the United States are not as expected, reflecting the weakness of its manufacturing industry, adding to market concerns about the global economic situation, undermining the rise in copper prices, and crude oil continues to be worried about the demand side. maintain stability 53 low. On the domestic side, the annual GDP rate in the third quarter was lower than expected, and economic growth continued to slow. On the whole, the economic situation at home and abroad is still pessimistic, which is hard to say good for the copper market. Britain's vote on a new Brexit deal has been delayed, risk aversion continues to heat up and CMX gold prices remain stable around 1500. Copper prices are expected to fall back slightly today. Today's copper 5790-5840 U. S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 46800-47200 yuan / ton.