Summary of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on October 17th
[10.17 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) Trump said that China has started buying US agricultural products and that he may meet Xi Jinping in November to sign a trade agreement with China. 2) the pound soared when EU and British negotiators were said to be close to reaching a draft Brexit agreement. 3) retail sales in the United States fell 0.3% in September from a month earlier and are expected to rise 0.3%. Retail sales fell unexpectedly for the first time in seven months in September, potentially adding to the rationale for the Fed's third rate cut. Confidence among homebuilders climbed to its highest level since February 2018 in October as borrowing costs fell and the job market strengthened. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: Oyu Tolgoi copper mine copper production in the third quarter decreased by 27.9% compared with the same period last year, down 27.6% month-on-month, mainly due to the average grade of raw ore decreased from 0.46% in the second quarter to 0.37%. Oyu Tolgoi produced 85000 metal tons of copper in the first three quarters, up 8.7 per cent from a year earlier. 2) scrap copper: the price difference of fine scrap yesterday was 692 yuan / ton. In the near future, the performance of copper futures is weak, and in the future, due to the lack of confidence in demand, the expectation of copper price is pessimistic, and at the same time, it affects the market expectation of scrap copper price. Now, even if the supply of scrap copper is tight, but the scrap copper market is still not in a state of recovery, the price of scrap copper is not optimistic. 3) Import of copper: there was a loss of about 50 yuan / ton on imports yesterday. The foreign trade market remained light yesterday. The market quotation maintains the previous day level mostly, but the inquiry is still light, the individual buy counter-offer is lower than the previous day transaction price, the holder low price shipment slightly hesitates, the buyer and seller are in a stalemate state. Few transactions were made yesterday and the price remained unchanged. 4) stocks: LME copper stocks increased by 600 tons to 275575 tons on October 16. The stock of copper warehouse receipts in the previous period increased by 1472 tons to 64399 tons. 5) spot: due to the low price source of the next monthly ticket quotation yesterday, taking into account the long single delivery, the low price attracted the market to buy goods, the disk price fell back today, the overall transaction is still expected to maintain, the pace of rising water for the holder to speed up. It is estimated that spot water will rise by 60 yuan to 100 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices continued to fall overnight, mainly because the monthly rate of core retail sales in the United States in September was lower than expected, adding to investors' concerns about the macroeconomic situation, and copper prices continued to fall. At present, according to the economic data released by many countries, the United Kingdom and Europe also released CPI annual rates in September, the performance is weaker than expected, the current global economic situation is still no obvious signs of improvement, at the same time, after the short-term good news has been digested, the market is still worried about the trade outlook and continues to prefer safe haven assets. CMX gold prices rebounded to US $1494 / oz. Crude oil API inventories rose sharply during the week, reflecting market concerns about demand, oil prices continued to fall, below the 52.7 level. On the whole, the copper market is still weak macro leading market, higher slightly weak. At present, the trend of domestic accumulation after the festival is obvious, consumption has not been significantly improved, the fundamentals are difficult to have bright spots. Shanghai copper has now fallen below all moving averages, the technical side of the performance is bearish. Copper prices are expected to remain low today. Lun copper 5680-5740 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 46500-46900 yuan / ton.