[SMM Thread Analysis] October scheduling report: production reduction during the peak period of production restriction, thread scheduling-0.45%

According to SMM Iron and Steel Research, 31 steel mills that mainly produce building materials planned to produce 8.3112 million tons of rebar, 37600 tons less than the actual output of 8.3488 million tons last month, or-0.45 percent from the previous month. The spool plans to produce 2.9682 million tons, up from-1 per cent of the actual output of 2.984 million tons last month. Of which:

Export: thread export in October planned to export 190000 tons, down 10, 000 tons from the previous month; spool in October planned to export 165000 tons, down 10, 000 tons from the actual export volume last month.

This is mainly due to: under the turbulent environment of the international economy, China's steel exports have continued to decline this year (in the first eight months of this year, China's steel exports were 44.974 million tons, down 4.4 percent from the same period last year). At the same time, the recent decline in thread foreign trade prices (the average thread foreign trade price in September was $442.85 / ton, while as of today, thread foreign trade price is about $435 / ton), followed by a shrinking foreign trade benefit. Steel mills have also seen a decline in exports.

Domestic trade supply: thread October domestic trade planned volume of 8.1212 million tons, compared with last month's actual investment of 8.1488 million tons month-on-month-0.34%; wire disk domestic trade planned volume of 2.8032 million tons in October, compared with the previous month's actual volume of 2.809 million tons month-on-month-0.2%.

Although the profit has rebounded slightly, the enthusiasm of steel mills in various regions, especially in East China, has also heated up, but it is worth noting that although the recent National Day "production restriction peak" has gradually cooled, however, the policy "hardest hit area"-North China: on the one hand, due to the National Day period of steel mills to limit production, its complete resumption of production still takes time; On the other hand, a few days ago, Tangshan issued another October production restriction news, requiring that, in addition to steel mills with grades A and B in performance evaluation, the performance evaluation is for Class C sintering, pellet equipment, lime kilns and blast furnaces to stop production by more than 50% (including). Specifically, it is carried out in accordance with the "first stage emission reduction measures of iron and steel enterprises" in the "heavy pollution Weather Emergency Industrial Source Pollutant reduction list". In addition, today, Jiangsu, Linfen, Shanxi and other places have also re-issued environmental protection production restriction policy, environmental protection production restriction "seamless connection", will make the supply of the road to hinder, building materials fundamentals to support the "treasure knife is not old."

[specific circumstances]

The main steel mills in North China scheduled production of 1.626 million tons of rebar, compared with the actual output of 1.636 million tons last month-0.61%, and the output of 839900 tons was + 3.88% higher than the actual output of 808500 tons last month.

XG (Zhangjiakou) this month thread production of 350000 tons compared with the previous month 338000 tons month-on-month + 4%.

TG (Tangshan) this month thread production of 93000 tons, compared with the previous month 165000 tons month-on-month-44%, combined with the recent steel mill order acceptance and the company's development direction and other factors, the hot metal will be turned to hot coil and other varieties;

JY (Shijiazhuang) this month thread production of 805000 tons, compared with the actual output of 810000 tons last month is basically the same, during the National Day sintering production limit of 50%, the output of finished wood is also slightly affected;

CG (Chengde) scheduled production of 243000 tons of thread this month, compared with the actual output of 213000 tons month-on-month + 14%, in mid-September a bar line overhaul, affecting the output of about 27000 tons.

The output of 752400 tons of rebar from the main steel mills in Northeast China is-6.71% higher than the actual output of 795800 tons last month, and the actual output of 178600 tons of wire reels is + 2.35% higher than the actual output of 17.45 tons last month.

LG (Lingyuan) this month thread production of 195000 tons compared with the actual output of 185000 tons last month + 5.41%, in September to a bar line maintenance, affecting thread output of about 10, 000 tons;

TG (Tonghua) this month thread production of 72400 tons, compared with the actual output of 127800 tons last month-43%, in October, the bar production line overhauled, the hot metal to other varieties;

XL (Yichun) this month thread production of 255000 tons compared with the actual output of 253000 tons last month is basically the same as the previous month.

The output of 967300 tons of rebar from major steel mills in Northwest China was 965000 tons more than that of the previous month, + 0.24% from the previous month, and 335000 tons of wire reels was basically the same as the actual output of the previous month.

SG (Shaanxi) this month thread production of 791000 tons compared with the actual output of 795000 tons last month is basically the same.

The main steel mills in East China are scheduled to produce 3.4325 million tons of rebar, compared with the actual output of 340.9 tons last month, + 0.69%, and the planned output of 1.2997 million tons is 1.347 million tons, or-3.51%, from the previous month.

MG (Anhui): the production of thread this month is 15.5 tons, which is basically flat compared with the previous month.

NG (Jiangsu): thread production of 180000 tons this month (183000 tons last month), month-on-month-2%, stable production condition;

SG (Jiangsu) produced 457500 tons of threads this month (471000 tons last month), up from-3 per cent last month and-17 per cent from the previous month, mainly because two converters will be overhauled from October 15 to 31 and the two bar lines will be overhauled in turn for 13 days in October.

FG (Jiangxi): this month thread production capacity of 270000 tons (last month 200000 tons), the previous blast furnace in the maintenance state, the recent resumption of production.

The main central and southern steel mills scheduled production of 1.533 million tons of rebar, compared with the actual output of 1.543 million tons last month, a month-on-month ratio of 0.65%, while the reel 315000 tons was 319000 tons from the previous month, basically flat from the previous month.

SG (Shaoguan) this month thread production of 300000 tons compared with the previous month is basically flat, the current shipping condition is good;

EG (Echeng) this month thread production of 160000 tons (last month's actual output of 180000 tons), month-to-month ratio-11%, in mid-September to the whole of October a bar line in the maintenance state, is expected to affect thread output of 10-110000 tons;

LG (Hunan), which produced 260000 tons of threads this month from 245000 tons last month, adjusted the production line in mid-September and turned a small amount of molten iron to threads.