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[SMM Hot Volume] it is too early to panic in the process of accumulating the library after the festival.
Oct 10,2019 18:14CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

The total national stock of hot rolling this week is 3.4143 million tons, + 5.6% in the last week before the month-on-month festival, and-1.4% year-on-year. Total inventories have continued to be higher than in the same period last year since the start of the off-season in June. The first year-on-year decline in total inventory this week is mainly due to the fact that the scope and intensity of environmental protection and production restriction and control during the National Day this year are far greater than that of the same period last year, resulting in varying degrees of restrictions on the production of steel mills in various regions. As a result, the output of steel mills this year is significantly lower than that of last year, prompting a year-on-year reduction in total inventory. Among them,

 

Social inventory: 2.4547 million tons of social treasury this week, + 6.9% the week before the month-on-month festival, + 1.4% year-on-year. The month-on-month increase is mainly due to the fact that during the National Day period, many places do not carry out spot transactions, while in most areas, road transport is basically lifted, steel mill resources shipment is more normal, resulting in the accumulation of social coffers this week. Among the pessimism of the month-on-month increase, it is still gratifying that the year-on-year growth rate is the lowest since the off-season (mainly due to the reduction in steel production caused by environmental protection production restrictions), coupled with the recent market transaction preference, terminal procurement sentiment is also relatively stable, so in the case of environmental control in various regions is still in progress, it is expected that the late fall of the warehouse is still possible.

 

Steel mill inventory: 959600 tons this week, + 2.4% the week before the month-on-month, year-on-year-8.1%. The increase in factory warehouse is mainly due to the gradual lifting of environmental protection production restrictions in some areas during the National Day period, so the output of steel mills has relatively recovered, and the plant warehouse has also increased slightly, but recently, various regions have issued a new round of environmental protection production restriction policies. therefore, the follow-up steel plant production recovery or will be blocked, and in the case of normal shipment of resources, the factory warehouse is still expected to decline.

 

At the same time, it is worth noting that there is a certain degree of differentiation between regions, the pressure of accumulation in South China is on the high side, while that in East China is relatively small. And with the cold weather, the north wood southward intensity increases, so it is expected that the regional differentiation in the later stage may continue to intensify, and the inventory pressure in South China will further increase.

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