[brief Review of SMM stainless Steel Futures] the narrow range fluctuation around the daily average is expected to remain strong in the short term.

PT Metal Smeltindo Selaras (MSS), a China-invested nickel smelter in Morowali, Central Sulawesi, is facing a PKPU petition filed by nickel mining and trading company PT Mineral Maju Sejahtera. The case was registered at the Central Jakarta Commercial Court on September 29, 2026, with the first hearing scheduled for October 8. MSS operates an RKEF smelter with eight furnaces and targeted feronickel capacity of around 600,000 mt/y. No production suspension has been confirmed.

The European Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) published its CBAM de minimis assessment on 30 September. For 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, it found that the 50-tonne single mass-based threshold exempted less than the statutory 1% limit of embedded emissions, so the threshold stays in place. Under the CBAM Regulation, the Commission must amend the threshold by delegated act if the value calculated under Annex VII deviates from the current one by more than 15 tonnes. The assessment did not publish the underlying calculation or methodology, and came later than the 30 April deadline set in the Regulation. DG TAXUD also issued a factsheet on CBAM certificates, but the delegated act on certificate sales, repurchase and fees has yet to be adopted and, according to industry sources, has slipped from the second quarter to the fourth. With certificate sales due to start on 1 February 2027 and Parliament and Council able to take up to four months to object, the rules risk not being in place in time. The Article 9 implementing regulation on crediting carbon prices paid in the country of origin has also been stuck at draft stage since May. For stainless steel importers, imports below 50 tonnes a year remain exempt, while those above the threshold still face uncertainty over certificate purchasing and origin-country carbon price credits, keeping CBAM cost calculations unsettled.

Just five days into the new EU steel quota period running from 1 October to 31 December, Commission data show several quotas for Türkiye, China, India, Australia, Taiwan (PoC), North Macedonia and "other countries" already exhausted, with a number of others more than 70% used. On the stainless side, India has exceeded both its quota for stainless bars and light sections and its quota for seamless stainless tubes, and in each case the volume waiting for customs clearance at EU ports exceeds the full quarterly allocation. Most of that material will therefore either wait for the next quarter or pay the 50% out-of-quota tariff. Indian bright bar export offers to Europe were already softening, with European buyers cautious over CBAM and quota uncertainty. With quotas filled at the opening, Indian stainless long product exports to the EU will be sharply constrained in Q4, forcing exporters to weigh price against quota access. The other exhausted categories are mostly carbon steel, with Türkiye exceeding multiple quotas including HRC, coated sheet, wire rod and welded pipe.