[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Taiwan (PoC) stainless wire rod export prices climb to over-a-year high as volumes lag

The European Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) published its CBAM de minimis assessment on 30 September. For 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, it found that the 50-tonne single mass-based threshold exempted less than the statutory 1% limit of embedded emissions, so the threshold stays in place. Under the CBAM Regulation, the Commission must amend the threshold by delegated act if the value calculated under Annex VII deviates from the current one by more than 15 tonnes. The assessment did not publish the underlying calculation or methodology, and came later than the 30 April deadline set in the Regulation. DG TAXUD also issued a factsheet on CBAM certificates, but the delegated act on certificate sales, repurchase and fees has yet to be adopted and, according to industry sources, has slipped from the second quarter to the fourth. With certificate sales due to start on 1 February 2027 and Parliament and Council able to take up to four months to object, the rules risk not being in place in time. The Article 9 implementing regulation on crediting carbon prices paid in the country of origin has also been stuck at draft stage since May. For stainless steel importers, imports below 50 tonnes a year remain exempt, while those above the threshold still face uncertainty over certificate purchasing and origin-country carbon price credits, keeping CBAM cost calculations unsettled.

Just five days into the new EU steel quota period running from 1 October to 31 December, Commission data show several quotas for Türkiye, China, India, Australia, Taiwan (PoC), North Macedonia and "other countries" already exhausted, with a number of others more than 70% used. On the stainless side, India has exceeded both its quota for stainless bars and light sections and its quota for seamless stainless tubes, and in each case the volume waiting for customs clearance at EU ports exceeds the full quarterly allocation. Most of that material will therefore either wait for the next quarter or pay the 50% out-of-quota tariff. Indian bright bar export offers to Europe were already softening, with European buyers cautious over CBAM and quota uncertainty. With quotas filled at the opening, Indian stainless long product exports to the EU will be sharply constrained in Q4, forcing exporters to weigh price against quota access. The other exhausted categories are mostly carbon steel, with Türkiye exceeding multiple quotas including HRC, coated sheet, wire rod and welded pipe.

October 304 list prices in Taiwan (PoC) rose again, marking a third consecutive monthly increase, and market participants see this week as a test of whether distributors will accept the new levels. Mills are holding firm on pricing, and distribution channels still need to restock. Although raw material costs have fluctuated slightly, the finished product market remains resilient: Indonesian 304 2B cold-rolled export offers are firm and Asian quotations remain elevated overall. With inventory costs rising, distributors are gradually pulling back on low-priced sales, narrowing the supply of cheaper material. Prices are expected to edge higher with the low end of the range tightening, though this will depend on how the Chinese market performs after the holiday and on actual transactions. If Chinese prices soften after the holiday, distributors in Taiwan (PoC) will find it much harder to pass costs on.