[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU keeps CBAM de minimis threshold unchanged as certificate sale rules remain pending

Just five days into the new EU steel quota period running from 1 October to 31 December, Commission data show several quotas for Türkiye, China, India, Australia, Taiwan (PoC), North Macedonia and "other countries" already exhausted, with a number of others more than 70% used. On the stainless side, India has exceeded both its quota for stainless bars and light sections and its quota for seamless stainless tubes, and in each case the volume waiting for customs clearance at EU ports exceeds the full quarterly allocation. Most of that material will therefore either wait for the next quarter or pay the 50% out-of-quota tariff. Indian bright bar export offers to Europe were already softening, with European buyers cautious over CBAM and quota uncertainty. With quotas filled at the opening, Indian stainless long product exports to the EU will be sharply constrained in Q4, forcing exporters to weigh price against quota access. The other exhausted categories are mostly carbon steel, with Türkiye exceeding multiple quotas including HRC, coated sheet, wire rod and welded pipe.

Stainless steel wire rod export prices from Taiwan (PoC) have kept rising and now stand at their highest level in more than a year, after a sizeable cumulative gain over the past seven months. Higher costs for nickel and other raw materials have led mills to raise domestic list prices repeatedly, lifting export prices at local wire rod producers Walsin Lihwa and Yieh Hsing. Volumes have not kept pace, however: wire rod exports from Taiwan (PoC) in January–August remained below the same period last year. Market participants say any profit improvement at the two companies will depend on export volumes growing alongside higher prices. This also helps explain why Walsin Lihwa held its October 304 wire rod base price flat and adjusted only copper- and molybdenum-bearing grades: with export volumes soft, a broad price increase could further erode downstream export competitiveness. Points to watch are nickel prices and whether overseas wire rod demand recovers.

October 304 list prices in Taiwan (PoC) rose again, marking a third consecutive monthly increase, and market participants see this week as a test of whether distributors will accept the new levels. Mills are holding firm on pricing, and distribution channels still need to restock. Although raw material costs have fluctuated slightly, the finished product market remains resilient: Indonesian 304 2B cold-rolled export offers are firm and Asian quotations remain elevated overall. With inventory costs rising, distributors are gradually pulling back on low-priced sales, narrowing the supply of cheaper material. Prices are expected to edge higher with the low end of the range tightening, though this will depend on how the Chinese market performs after the holiday and on actual transactions. If Chinese prices soften after the holiday, distributors in Taiwan (PoC) will find it much harder to pass costs on.