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[SMM Hot Volume] supply pressure Regional differentiation intensifies in the late stage of South China Market may be at risk
Oct 9,2019 17:51CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.


As can be seen from the above table, the total amount of resources received by the mainstream hot rolling mills this week is 238000 tons, compared with 157000 tons + 81000 tons last week. Among them, the Shanghai market: 69000 tons of resources arrived this week, + 12000 tons month-on-month, a small increase, market supply pressure is not as pessimistic as expected, supply and demand fundamentals can be maintained. Among them, Shanshan Iron and Steel, Tonggang and vertical and horizontal and other resources to increase the arrival of steel mills, mainly due to better pre-node orders and normal shipment in the section led to the accumulation of resources in the market. Happy from the market: this week resources arrived at 158000 tons, month-on-month + 66000 tons, a significant increase in growth, in the original inventory on the high side of the supply pressure highlighted, leading to more pessimistic market expectations, supply and demand fundamentals imbalance intensified. Among them, Yanshan Iron and Steel, Shougang and other steel mills accounted for a relatively large increase in resources, mainly by pre-festival environmental protection production restrictions again strictly boosted, the market pessimistic mentality slightly improved, so in the case of almost no upside-down from the market, traders from steel mills order enthusiasm increased, in addition, the steel mill resources which are not affected by environmental protection and production restrictions are shipped normally, resulting in a significant increase in the arrival of goods in the post-festival market. Tianjin market: 11000 tons of resources arrived this week, + 3000 tons month-on-month, a slight increase, still belongs to the normal volume of resources, the market supply pressure is still relatively small, the fundamentals of supply and demand are relatively stable. Among them, the resources of Angang, Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Chenggang and Baotou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have increased slightly due to the normal shipment during the festival, but the overall impact is small. Overall, it is still important to note that the price gap between Lecong and Shanghai has been maintained at about 100 yuan / ton since July, so the resources of steel mills are more inclined to be shipped to southern China, resulting in the continued adequacy of resources in the region. After the festival, the resources of the South China market increased significantly, which led to the supply pressure of the market is much greater than that of the East China market. At the same time, the price difference between the two places is still maintained at about 100 yuan / ton, coupled with the increase in the total amount of northern timber southward in the fourth quarter, so it is expected that the future market resources in South China will continue to increase. At that time, in the South China market supply and demand fundamentals aggravated imbalance, spot prices will be significantly under pressure, South China and East China price gap is expected to gradually narrow.

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