[SMM Thread Analysis] at the end of the 70th anniversary of Daqing, can steel prices hold up?

The 70th anniversary of Daqing in China has come to an end. With the end of the curtain is the regional air emergency response. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and other provinces and cities have lifted the air pollution warning on the 2nd. Much attention has been paid to the resumption of production in steel enterprises. Long process steel plant: except for the longer production restriction time in Hebei Province, the production restriction time in most other provinces is about 2-4 days, and the production reduction is relatively limited. With the cancellation of the air emergency response, coupled with the gradual recovery of profits before the festival, the major steel enterprises have resumed production one after another on the 2nd. Short process: the electric furnace plant is still in a state of production reduction due to the shortage of scrap resources. Therefore, to sum up, although the supply has been reduced, but not as expected, coupled with the reduction of steel enterprises have resumed production one after another, from oven production to feedback to the market needs about 20 days, then the contradiction between supply and demand may gradually appear. However, it is gratifying to note that some terminal demand is suppressed by the impact of holidays and traffic control, and there may be rush replenishment demand at the end of the holiday. Therefore, although supply may be under pressure, but in the short term, spot prices are still supported, mainly by volatility.

Details:

Steel Plant A (East China): during the National Day period, production is limited for 2-3 days, affecting an average of about 10,000 tons per day. At present, all production is resumed, the factory warehouse is at the conventional level, and the shipment is good, and there is no inventory pressure.

Steel Plant B (East China): national Day production limit 2-3 days, production limit sintering, due to the preparation of sinter in advance, so the actual production reduction can be ignored. There is a slight accumulation of libraries.

Steel plant C (North China): the impact of limited production is about 100000 tons, the 4th started oven recovery, has returned to 75% of the current production. As a result of the suspension of production, the factory warehouse has not accumulated.

Steel Plant D (East China): the National Day production limit of 2-3 days, only affects the molten iron, does not affect the actual output. There is no pressure on inventory and the receipt of orders is in good condition.