Summary of key points:

In July 2019, the PMI composite index was 48.31, up 1.77 from the previous month and 1.70 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index rose 52.77, up 0.96 from the previous month and 1.33 from the same period last year.

Generally speaking, this month's PMI composite index before the quarter adjustment is lower than 50, after the quarter adjustment is higher than the 50 withered glory line, the downstream industry as a whole continues the off-season trend, affected by seasonal factors some industries continue to weaken. This month's composite production index was 45.93, up 1.73 from the previous month and 2.04 from the same period last year, with the exception of the transportation infrastructure industry, showing varying degrees of decline this month. The index of new orders was 48.37, up 4.47 from the previous month and 3.64 from the same period last year. In the manufacturing industry, machinery, cars and household appliances are affected by the off-season and show a downward trend. The shipbuilding industry affects the production rhythm due to the poor volume of new orders; in the construction industry, the construction industry is slightly affected by Rain Water, high temperature and other factors.

Shanghai Nonferrous Steel downstream Industry Purchasing Manager Index

The PMI index of iron and steel in July looked at the following points:

The PMI composite index of the construction industry was 48.41, up 1.85 from the previous month and 0.42 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 52.01, up 1.50 from the previous month and down 0.15 from the same period last year. This month, production and orders as a whole are relatively stable, continuing the off-season trend in June. The south got rid of the Meiyu weather gradually improved, on the contrary, some northern areas due to heavy rain affected the rhythm of production. At present, some enterprises have been through the wrong time production to reduce the impact of high temperature. The purchase volume and purchase price of enterprises have decreased slightly.

The PMI composite index of the machinery industry was 46.94, up 3.09 from the previous month and 4.29 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 53.93, up 0.1 from the previous month and 4.29 from the same period last year. This month the industry continued its June decline, but the decline was limited. Among them, the petrochemical and power industry market is good, the domestic demand for agricultural machinery is not good, affected by production safety and environmental protection and other factors, it is difficult to improve in the short term. Affected by the off-season, most varieties of machinery production and new orders generally declined. Most enterprises choose to purchase on demand, and the inventory of raw materials is low.

The PMI composite index of the automobile industry was 45.16, down 1.23 from the previous month and 0.16 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index fell 53.08, down 0.52 from the previous month and 0.85 from the same period last year. This month, the industry has been affected by the off-season, domestic demand is still poor, some car companies are looking for foreign opportunities. The hot weather has further slowed down the pace of production. The procurement of raw materials is mainly on-demand procurement, and the purchase volume and price have declined.

The PMI index of the shipbuilding industry was 47.26, down 6.04 from the previous month and 5.82 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index fell 48.91, down 2.87 from the previous month and 6.07 from the same period last year. This month, the shipbuilding industry is mainly based on pre-production orders, the number of orders has declined, a small number of shipyards seek business transformation. On the whole, the heat of ship repair business continues, and the shipbuilding business may have the risk of continuous decline.

The PMI composite index of the home appliance industry was 47.02, down 0.57 from the previous month and up 3.81 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 52.91, down 0.49 from the previous month and up 3.29 from the same period last year. The industry continues to be affected by the off-season, production and new orders have declined slightly, some enterprises from the original one-off adjustment to two days off. There was no significant change in poor sales this month, with a slight increase in finished goods inventory, a continued decline in raw material purchases, mainly on demand, and a significant drop in inventory.

The PMI composite index of the transportation infrastructure industry was 56.89, up 2.53 from the previous month and 7.46 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 57.31, up 0.68 from the previous month and 6.99 from the same period last year. This month, the industry as a whole continued to improve, production and new orders increased significantly, but at the same time, enterprises for raw materials procurement and other funds control gradually cautious and strict trend. Generally speaking, the follow-up market is more optimistic, thanks to the deregulation of the financing policy, the follow-up market is hot.

For more information, please consult Li Tian, Research Department of Iron and Steel Industry of Shanghai Nonferrous Network.

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