Current Review (29 July)

< 1 > spot aspect.

Affected by the short-term suspension of environmental restrictions in Tangshan, steel market prices fell by 20 to 50 percent. Trading volume: not as bad as market expectations. The price of billet in Tangshan area has dropped from 20 yuan to 3630 yuan per ton.

Market mentality: pessimistic homeowners.

Phase II steel.

RB1910 main contract:

During the day, a huge increase in positions fell, the end of the position increased to 204550, within the day between 3945 and 3875 to continue to explore the bottom, closing 3877. The main organization within the day clearance single 39771 hands.

HC1910 main contract:

During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 31368 hands, and continued to explore the bottom between 3854 and 3795 during the day, with a final harvest of 3797. The main organization within the day clearance single 5183 hands.

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

During the day, a large reduction in positions, tail reduction to 77470 hands, between 891.5 and 880.5 within a narrow range of strong shock, closing 885. The main organization has a net increase of 6411 hands per day.

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 22804 hands, with a narrow range of weak shocks between 2190 and 2167.5 during the day, with a final closing of 2169. The main organization within the day clearance order 534 hands.

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

During the day, there was a small reduction in positions and tail positions to 5830 hands, with a narrow range of weak shocks between 1390.5 and 1404.5 during the day, with a final closing of 1393. The main organization within the day clearance single 3029 hands.

Forecast for tomorrow.

1. Spot: early weak afternoon strong.

two。 Futures:

RB1910 main contract: between 3840 and 3930 concussion.

HC1910 main contract: between 3770 and 3850 concussion.

Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 870 and 900 concussion.

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2150 and 2200 concussion.

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1380 and 1420 concussion.

< 4 > suggestions for current operation:

1. On the spot side:

Inventory data larger: smooth rolling operation.

Low inventory data: gradually replenish inventory on the low side.

two。 Futures:

RB1910 contract / HC1910 contract:

The trend is more single and low gradually involved in the main, short rhythm high throw low suction rolling operation.

Iron ore L1909 main contract: interval partial empty operation, multi-empty fast-in and fast-out.

Coke J1909 main contract: more operation in the interval.

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: wait-and-see or interval partial empty operation.

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. Xuzhou launched a 100-day battle to win the blue sky, and the law enforcement team punished no less than two cases a week. It has little impact on steel production capacity and boosts coke to a certain extent.

two。 Tangshan area in August environmental protection production limit documents did not fall to the ground, from the policy point of view, a high probability of landing, the key depends on how to limit production and rainfall.

3. In the game of coke price increase in the second round, the landing depends on the environmental protection and production restriction of Shanxi Erqing Society and the profit repair of steel enterprises.

4. Iron ore.

Port spot 61.5% powdered ore 875, an increase of 5 yuan / ton, but the steel mill still has no appetite; the plate discount is 77 yuan / ton. The fundamentals are not as good as the early days, and the right amount of cloth is empty at every height. The author's forward-looking point of view remains unchanged.

5. The return period of demand should be in due course, do not dance with the market on the wall. In a word, the author states the sufficient conditions of demand return period N times, and does not repeat it.

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly reviews on June 1 and July 26 for details.

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)