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[2019.7.29 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] High and volatile nickel prices are vigilant against capital movements, and sea freight charges continue to raise the prices of supported nickel mines.
Jul 29,2019 10:20CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Macro: the actual annualized initial value of GDP in the second quarter of the United States rose 2.1% compared with the previous quarter, exceeding expectations. At present, the market believes that the interest rate cut 50BP has been basically eliminated, but the possibility of cutting interest rate 25BP still exists. U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on July 26, local time, instructing the United States Trade Representative to use all available means to ensure that the World Trade Organization (WTO) reforms the status of developing countries and prevent countries that "claim themselves" as developing countries but do not have the support of appropriate economic indicators to enjoy the flexibility of special and differential treatment in the WTO negotiations. This is a time when WTO members are actively promoting WTO reform, and the President of the United States has made a negotiation offer to developing countries in the most hawkish and unilateralist manner.

Nickel spot: spot transaction and discount aspect, last week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 350 yuan / ton continuously narrow, Friday base this newspaper discount 1908 yuan / ton or so. Russian nickel holders have a strong willingness to raise water, one is to predict that the current import loss is relatively large, the later inflow into the market is not much, and the other is that the willingness to ship at a loss near the cost line is not strong. Although the nickel price is high in the first half of the week, but the emotional stimulus to the downstream is limited, and the downstream is relatively pessimistic about the future market. Only part of the downstream has a small amount of goods around 112500 yuan / ton with a discount of 400 yuan / ton. Nickel prices continued to decline in the second half of the week, in the vicinity of 110000 discount 300yuan / ton concentrated transaction is obvious, steel mills into the market replenishment, compared with the first half of the week improved.

Stainless steel: on July 26th, the price of stainless steel 304/NO.1 in Wuxi was down 200 yuan / ton from yesterday to 14100 14300 yuan / ton, and the price of 304 2B was 100 200 yuan / ton lower than yesterday to 14900 15000 yuan / ton. Some traders said that the recent stainless steel plant continuous reduction in the guiding price, coupled with the current downstream demand is not good, the transaction is light, the market quotation generally has a downward trend.

Nickel mine sea freight: according to SMM research, sea freight has been raised continuously since the beginning of July. As of July 26, the sea freight from pomalaa to Lianyungang is about US $12.5 to US $13 / wet ton, an increase of about US $2.50 / wet ton compared with the beginning of last week.

Stocks: 145100 tons of nickel in stock on 26 July, a decrease of 438 tons compared with 25 July.

Nickel price judgment: last week nickel price high pullback, from about 120000 high pullback to around 110000, the week fell 10, 000 yuan, but the bulls have not left the market. In the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, nickel prices continue to be affected by capital sentiment in the near future, superimposed next week Sino-US trade negotiations are expected to warm, and the US dollar weakened after the Fed cut interest rates, nickel prices are expected to run stronger next week. But watch out for the recent weakness in stainless steel prices, a possible crackdown on nickel prices, as well as differences between the long and short sides in this position, and watch out for capital outflows.

minutes of internal morning meetings

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