Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on July 26th
[7.26 minutes of SMM Copper Morning meeting] Macro aspect: 1) Ministry of Commerce: the 12th round of Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultations will be held in Shanghai from July 30 to 31. 2) the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged is expected to remain at current "or lower" levels until at least the end of June 2020, opening up room for a possible rate cut in September. However, Draghi did not send a clear signal of easing at the press conference to push for a rebound in the euro. 3) overnight US economic data: initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10, 000 to 206000 last week. The initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in June was significantly better than expected, rising 2% to 0.7%, and the durable goods order data was strong. The dollar rebounded after the data. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday refined scrap price difference of 1694 yuan / ton. At present, the scrap enterprises that have received the approval have started six types of import operations, but the market generally believes that the import cost has increased; the upstream scrap copper holders are still in a strong mood when the supply of goods is tight, and the scrap enterprises that have not received the approval are waiting for the third batch of approval to be issued to alleviate the current situation of the price in the near future. 2) Import copper: yesterday LME0-3 discount 20.5 US dollars / ton, import loss of about 300 yuan / ton. The demand for foreign trade is maintained in a relatively light state, but the performance of domestic trade is relatively stable, and there are not many goods coming to Hong Kong in August in the foreign trade market, and the willingness to ship goods in the market is not strong, so traders are unwilling to take the initiative to lower their quotations, a small number of transaction prices continue to remain unchanged, and the activity of the foreign trade market is relatively low. 3) stocks: LME copper stocks increased by 475 tons to 295475 tons on 25 July, while copper stocks in the previous period increased by 1247 tons to 62816 tons. 4) spot: spot due to the recent end of the basic delivery of long orders, and the end of the month enterprises need to do settlement, the market turned light, next month the pace of low tickets will drive the market to slightly lower the quotation. It is expected that today's spot flat water-liter 60 yuan / ton. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, the overall internal and external disk showed a high opening low trend, Shanghai copper morning straight to a high of 47220 yuan / ton, and then continue to explore, closing below the 47000 mark to 46950 yuan / ton position, down 0.15%, a small number of short positions into the market. Last night, mainly due to the Ministry of Commerce announced that China and the United States will hold the 12th round of high-level consultations, Shanghai copper opened high in the evening, and then the United States released better-than-expected durable goods order data, the US index continued to remain high, putting pressure on copper prices. The ECB left three major interest rates unchanged last night, but adjusted its forward-looking guidelines and is expected to keep current key interest rates unchanged or lower until at least the first half of 2020. At the macro level as a whole, the upward momentum of copper prices has been weakened as a whole. In terms of crude oil, demand is weakening in the macro environment, which makes oil prices rise and fall, which is bad for non-ferrous oil. Today, Shanghai copper closed the physical Dayin column, down to explore the Brin middle rail and the 20-day moving average, the MACD index is weak, the technical side of the lack of upward guidance on copper prices. It is estimated that 5950 yuan per ton of copper and 46800 yuan per ton of copper in Shanghai are expected to be 550 yuan per ton and 46800 yuan to 47100 yuan per ton today.
(SMM Kwong Tze-si)