Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on July 24
[7.24 SMM copper morning meeting minutes] Macro: 1) it is reported that China and the United States will hold their first high-level face-to-face trade talks next week since the collapse of the talks in May. 2) the total number of existing home sales in the United States in June was 5.27 million, and second-hand home sales in the United States fell more than expected in June, the latest sign of weakness in the housing market. The supply of low-and medium-priced housing is limited and continues to curb demand. Boris Johnson, who won the Conservative Party election and will become prime minister on Wednesday, insists he will leave the European Union at the end of October without an early election. 4) the IMF has again downgraded its global growth forecast, fearing that policy "mistakes" such as Brexit will derail the expected recovery. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday refined scrap price difference of 1889 yuan / ton. According to the preliminary calculation of SMM, the import of scrap copper in June increased by about 40-50, 000 metal tons compared with the same period last year, and domestic imports of scrap copper will increase by more than 100000 metal tons in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. At present, the absolute price of scrap copper has not yet reached the psychological price of scrap copper holders, the willingness to push forward is strong, and the quotation for scrap copper is relatively high; at the same time, the current terminal consumption is relatively poor, and the price difference of refined scrap copper rod is only 600 yuan / ton. Therefore, the willingness to purchase scrap copper rod downstream has not been significantly boosted; as a result, the transaction performance of the scrap copper market is general, and has not been significantly improved. 2) Import copper: yesterday LME0-3 discount 22 US dollars / ton, import loss of about 200 yuan / ton. Yesterday's market trading was slightly more active than yesterday, with an increase in quotations and inquiries. From the point of view of the offer, the mainstream offer remains at the previous high, some traders try to push up the premium, the offer is on the high side, but the demand is limited so that the transaction price remains in the previous range. The overall transaction situation has been significantly improved compared with the previous period, the demand at the end of the month to make up for the single, there is no significant change in the volume of import declaration. 3) stocks: LME copper stocks decreased by 2350 tons to 293375 tons on 23 July, while copper stocks in the previous period decreased by 1024 tons to 63296 tons. 4) spot: spot due to the sharp decline in market prices, low-price market inquiry is expected to be positive, which will drive the holding mood. It is expected that today's spot flat water-liter 50 yuan / ton. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, the overall decline in internal and external trading, the lowest position of Lun Copper down the US $5950 / ton mark, Shanghai Copper opened low below the 47000 level, as low as 46750 yuan / ton, the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by more than 10, 000 hands in the evening, mainly by short positions. In the evening, mainly because of the British prime minister election dust settled, Britain's chances of no agreement to leave the European Union may be as high as 40%, the pound fell sharply in the evening, boosting the strength of safe haven assets, metals under pressure. At present, the Federal Reserve has not had a new impact on interest rate cuts, market sentiment has been digested, and the dollar has rebounded. At the same time, IMF said that due to trade risks, the global downgrade of economic growth forecasts, it can be seen that the global macroeconomic weakness is difficult to change, the current copper prices have basically returned to Friday's gains, market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. Fundamentals of copper consumption is still maintained light pattern, difficult to support copper prices. Today, Shanghai copper hand entity Dayin column, the next shadow line broken Brin middle rail, KDJ indicators continue to expand. It is expected to be 5960 to 6005 US dollars per ton for London copper and 46700 to 47050 yuan per ton for Shanghai copper today.
(SMM Kwong Tze-si)