Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on July 23
[7.23 SMM copper morning meeting minutes] Macro: 1) as the Fed meets next week, Trump again urges a rate cut, tweeting that the Fed has raised interest rates and tightened policy too quickly. 2) Britain's new prime minister will be announced on Tuesday, if expected, Boris Johnson will be elected leader of the Conservative Party and become the new prime minister. AlanDuncan, secretary of state for European and American affairs, resigned from the Conservative cabinet. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday refined scrap price difference of 1873 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai copper fell back after opening high, and the price difference between fine and scrap prices is still at a high level. First of all, the rise of the absolute price of scrap copper has led to the willingness of scrap copper holders to ship; at the same time, due to the pull of the price difference of refined scrap copper rod has driven the consumption of scrap copper rod, but the terminal consumption is light, the pulling range is limited, and the transaction of scrap copper market has improved slightly. 2) Import copper: yesterday LME0-3 discount 20.5 US dollars / ton, import loss of 200 yuan / ton or so. Monday morning trading in the foreign trade market is light, the market offer is very few, there are a small number of inquiries, but the willingness to deal is low, more in order to understand the market price. Near the end of the month, the market still has some replenishment single demand, but the overall is still weak, transaction difficulties, because the market supply is also quite tight, so Yangshan copper premium continued to perform high stalemate. 3) stocks: LME copper stocks decreased by 725 tons to 295725 tons on 22 July, while copper stocks increased by 2177 tons to 64320 tons in the previous period. 4) spot: spot market weakness today, low prices are expected to attract market inquiry, and this week there is still a certain long single trading, market trading sentiment is expected to improve. It is expected that today's spot discount 20-liter water 50 yuan / ton. Copper prices and forecasts: last night inside and outside the overall performance of the shock downward trend, Shanghai copper down 47200 clearance, the main contract affected by long positions. In the evening, copper prices weakened as expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut continued to weaken, with the dollar fluctuating at a high around 97.2. At present, the market is weakening expectations of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, adding that the US economy is still performing well compared with the rest of the world, and the dollar is expected to remain high and volatile, and copper prices are under pressure. Fundamentals have not yet pushed up copper prices, and today's economic data is light, copper prices are more likely to continue to fall. Shanghai Copper has basically returned last week's gains, today closed slightly negative, above has lost Brin on the track support, KDJ indicators show negative cross, the technical side of the lack of copper price support. It is expected to be 5990 to 6030 US dollars per ton for today and 46950 to 47400 yuan per ton for Shanghai Copper.
(SMM Kwong Tze-si)