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[SMM analysis] stainless steel prices have soared all the way, steel mills have come to the extreme, Xi Da Pu Ben?
Jul 19,2019 21:54CST
translation
The inventory is high, the steel mill is full of production, the downstream demand is not good, the order is not smooth. Is the main theme of the past May-June market, the price of stainless steel in mid-June with nickel prices, all the way up, steel mills in July to reduce production is expected to fail. It was supposed to fade down in July, driven by nickel prices, soaring prices, the biggest increase this year, Zhou Junhuan rose 650 yuan / ton.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, July 19 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Cold and hot rolled price of stainless steel:

Hot rolled stainless steel followed by nickel prices rose faster than cold rolling, some specifications out of stock, hot and cold rolling price difference narrowed from July 10, this Wednesday narrowed to 400 yuan / ton, only a few lower-cost cold rolling mills can accept this price. After two days of embarrassment, the cold rolling price was "in hot pursuit" on Thursday, raising the price two to three times a day. On Friday, the base price of the private 304-2B rough edge was quoted at 14800 yuan / ton to 15000 yuan / ton, and the 304/NO.1 hot rolling price was quoted at 14600-14750 yuan / ton. Most traders react to the price without the market, the order is not smooth, part of the reaction due to the previous demand is not good, there is still a low-priced inventory in hand.

Profit of stainless steel plant

After mid-June due to nickel prices rose, stainless steel prices all the way up, the transaction slightly improved, the overall June transaction situation was flat in May, June off-season is not light, steel mills monthly loss of 180 yuan / ton. Stainless steel weak consolidation in early July, to the middle of the week due to nickel prices rose, stainless steel plants this week an average weekly profit of 382 yuan / ton, raw material high nickel iron price increase less than pure nickel, stainless steel prices skyrocketed, steel mill profits continue to repair, East China Steel Plant said that August has begun to take orders, there is no maintenance plan.

Seasonal variation of stainless Steel inventory

In mid-July, the social inventory of stainless steel increased by 2 per cent to 497000 tons compared with the beginning of July, of which the inventory increment was mainly reflected in the 200series and 400series, with a slight decrease of 1 per cent to 309000 tons, an increase of 9 per cent to 116000 tons and an increase of 9.47 per cent to 115600 tons. Today, stainless steel prices rose sharply, downstream there is no replenishment demand, part of the rigid demand for goods, most of them are still waiting, superimposed recently steel factory supplies have entered the market one after another, falling warehouse may be difficult to continue.

Recently, there has been no significant change in the fundamentals of nickel. The sharp rise in nickel prices is mainly due to the strength of funds, the postponement of loose expectations for the supply of ferronickel, and the failure of expectations for stainless steel production cuts. Next week, be alert to whether capital outflow, and fundamentals can support nickel prices, if nickel prices correction, stainless steel demand has not improved, prices are still at risk of a slight correction, pay attention to next week transactions and inventory changes.

 

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