[forecast of Shagang] it is estimated that the flat plate compensation of the ex-factory price of rebar in late July at Shagang

SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang is 50 to 80 yuan / ton in late July, that is, the adjustment of the third-grade big screw (ex-factory price is 4170 yuan / ton), the cost of Kuti in East China is 4120 yuan / ton, and the cost of the plant is 4070 yuan / ton.

[fundamental Analysis]:

The basic performance of this ten-day thread spot is not satisfactory. According to SMM statistics, as of the 19th, Hangzhou thread inventory of 675000, compared with the previous ten days (9) 559000 tons increased by 116000 tons, an increase of 81.3% compared with the same period last year. Mainly in the East China mainstream steel plant building materials production continues to increase, by the "Meiyu" season interference, the release of demand is not very smooth, traders more feedback terminals take goods enthusiasm is not high, sales are not smooth, and most of them are in the inverted state.

However, from the point of view of steel mills, with the continuous rise of raw material prices-since July, iron ore spot prices have fluctuated slightly around 900 yuan / ton for a long time. As of today, the average spot price of iron ore in July was 895 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, 468 yuan / ton increased by 427 yuan / ton, coke prices are not declining, so steel mill profits have been seriously compressed, coupled with steel mills at the end of the month to return to the financial pressure, so generally speaking, At present, steel mills have a strong willingness to push up the price, and there is a good chance that the price will be flat in the last half of the year.

However, thread fundamentals have shown signs of improvement. On the one hand, when the recent thread "security check" in East China is carried out, if the scope of the follow-up "security check" is expanded, the thread supply may be reduced, on the other hand, near late July, the southern region has already been released one after another, and demand may be released quickly. therefore, steel mills are still guided by bullish sentiment, the possibility of a small increase in ex-factory prices in the latter half of the year.

To make up for the difference:

According to SMM steel data, the average selling price of Shagang resources in Hangzhou this day is 4047 yuan per ton, and the loss per ton is 73 yuan. According to the survey, as of July 19, the market price in Hangzhou area was 4050 yuan per ton, and the actual loss was about 70 to 80 yuan per ton. Considering that businesses have the pressure of returning funds at the end of the month, steel mills may make up 50 to 80 yuan per ton to appease the mood of businesses.

Cost: according to the SMM iron and steel data model, according to the 121.7 US gold mine, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3641 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 339.1 yuan / ton. The data show that as of today, the average thread profit of the steel plant is 343.3 yuan / ton.

Order ratio: Yonggang 7 / 3 discount: rebar 7.5% discount, wire plate is not discounted.